NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295d628043b36e9cc9206fe9de82cbc4a47e8fa0fb38042d2f8ef3104890b609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 80c | 900$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.22 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Under | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 21c | 490.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 26c | 367.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 42c | 342.1$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.65 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Under | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 34c | 229$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 37c | 216.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 63c | 64.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 73c | 50.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 79c | 34.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 64c | 25.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 71c | 19.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5this page
- Senators vs. LightningLightning won
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.