MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf91836c537b30874dde556c3787859ab82e1a35892b8e2279645a9cd5ad0b963
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 58c | 86,143$49,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,712.29 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 57c | 45,481$25,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,924.24 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 42c | 44,221$18,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,649.77 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 43c | 30,000$12,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Over | 43c | 14,442$6,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,231.94 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Over | 42c | 12,000$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,960 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29cc…3c29backed Over | 43c | 10,666$4,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,079.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Over | 43c | 8,906$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,076.57 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 7,066$3,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050.91 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 58c | 2,748$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.32 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Under | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.22 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…9504backed Over | 43c | 2,325$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.25 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 44c | 2,296$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.44 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fd1ebacked Under | 58c | 2,172$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 1,556$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.35 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…dc82backed Under | 58c | 859.66$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…10f6backed Over | 43c | 641.91$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.89 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 624.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 499.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.15 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed Over | 42c | 490$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 71c | 474.65$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.65 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 28c | 394.71$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.56 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf89f…32b0backed Over | 74c | 364.31$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -6.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb402…42cebacked Over | 43c | 301.07$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Under | 50c | 252.39$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.98 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 44c | 225.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 43c | 169$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6596…e809backed Over | 75c | 131.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 58c | 130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 366 | 50.8%186 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a06dbacked Under | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 128.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f2…a659backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 58c | 112.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 58c | 99.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 42c | 87.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 43c | 80.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 270 | 45.9%124 W · 146 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 51c | 74.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…38cbbacked Over | 43c | 73.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfb…e01fbacked Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 41c | 68.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 77c | 65.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 42c | 59.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 56c | 58.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd13…62fbbacked Under | 26c | 57.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…4da1backed Over | 43c | 55.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 54.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…dc22backed Under | 58c | 52.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 43c | 47.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a9…56b8backed Over | 43c | 46.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 44c | 41.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…5760backed Under | 58c | 28.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…38c4backed Over | 43c | 27.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…b61cbacked Under | 58c | 25.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…bb8cbacked Under | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…e433backed Under | 58c | 19.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a73…de17backed Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7d…1f1abacked Under | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego PadresDetroit Tigers won
- NRFI: Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego PadresNo won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.