TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$122,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,003 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebc0…fa41backed San Diego Padres14c16,455$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.7317156.1%96 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Detroit Tigers53c12,000$6,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,64015148.3%73 W · 78 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked San Diego Padres42c9,985$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,180.221656.5%122 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked San Diego Padres47c9,889$4,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,635.561,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed San Diego Padres45c8,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60060451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked San Diego Padres47c6,577$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,067.9732348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Detroit Tigers55c5,772$3,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,580.391,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Detroit Tigers53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35013349.6%66 W · 67 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Detroit Tigers54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.994344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Detroit Tigers55c3,636$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.3616947.9%81 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Detroit Tigers54c3,333$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.1867250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Detroit Tigers53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41061947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked San Diego Padres47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17583248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa51…a910backed Detroit Tigers53c2,250$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed San Diego Padres47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked San Diego Padres44c2,005$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.3146547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Detroit Tigers53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9402965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers54c2,000$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.335,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Detroit Tigers54c1,762$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.5240846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed San Diego Padres1c1,743$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed San Diego Padres46c1,668$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.2750%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b57…1f2ebacked San Diego Padres46c1,614$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked San Diego Padres47c1,498$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.948646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed San Diego Padres47c1,098$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.061643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed San Diego Padres45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4506448.4%31 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed Detroit Tigers54c977.78$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.781233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Detroit Tigers53c920$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.475049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed San Diego Padres45c843.6$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.621,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Detroit Tigers78c802.22$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.31,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Detroit Tigers56c800$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3521,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres43c786$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.6912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Detroit Tigers55c712$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.427751.3%142 W · 135 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec5c…ce46backed San Diego Padres9c680.42$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Detroit Tigers56c629.96$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.9694034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked San Diego Padres37c548.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.441,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked San Diego Padres23c531.58$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209219.6%18 W · 74 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Detroit Tigers78c523.96$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.0514039.3%55 W · 85 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ce…0a8ebacked Detroit Tigers55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Detroit Tigers54c499.99$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2291,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked San Diego Padres44c499.98$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.999655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked San Diego Padres24c491.48$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7244556.9%253 W · 192 L+27.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Detroit Tigers54c488.89$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.898845.5%40 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x827b…1eedbacked San Diego Padres8c473.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366445.3%29 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Detroit Tigers55c427.27$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.275345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Detroit Tigers78c405.62$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2134164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed San Diego Padres14c371.95$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9354715.9%87 W · 460 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Detroit Tigers54c369.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.182147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9712…0c47backed Detroit Tigers54c340$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.410240.2%41 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked Detroit Tigers56c335.71$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.715752.6%30 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres45c320.77$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.352,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed San Diego Padres44c317.94$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8912339%48 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked San Diego Padres4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.29031.1%28 W · 62 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked San Diego Padres47c269$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4311454.4%62 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed San Diego Padres46c260.87$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12066551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Detroit Tigers56c258.26$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.722,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed San Diego Padres20c254$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.321,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed San Diego Padres46c221.74$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10213351.9%69 W · 64 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7cb…bc54backed San Diego Padres45c219.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014953%79 W · 70 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked Detroit Tigers54c215$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.914453.5%77 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked San Diego Padres47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Detroit Tigers54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9216644.6%74 W · 92 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67f4…87bdbacked Detroit Tigers54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.196256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Detroit Tigers54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1941152.3%215 W · 196 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed San Diego Padres43c183.61$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.981936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40e…9addbacked Detroit Tigers55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.826958%40 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres19c180.03$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.466,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21fb…fd64backed Detroit Tigers56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers67c177.74$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.039,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed San Diego Padres23c174.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.811,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xbd13…62fbbacked San Diego Padres11c166.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.743145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Detroit Tigers53c160$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.22650%13 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Detroit Tigers55c149.27$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1766448.2%320 W · 344 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed San Diego Padres47c148.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7056946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked San Diego Padres45c131.87$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.342548%12 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed San Diego Padres18c131$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.635944.1%26 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf25…636dbacked San Diego Padres46c125.57$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.21457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Detroit Tigers55c116$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6217050%85 W · 85 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked San Diego Padres45c116$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.219848.5%96 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed San Diego Padres46c103.01$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.371,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked San Diego Padres47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4757747.7%275 W · 302 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Detroit Tigers55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4511844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Detroit Tigers54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4613560%81 W · 54 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked San Diego Padres46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Detroit Tigers54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5947850.4%241 W · 237 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Detroit Tigers56c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.62630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed San Diego Padres13c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-64.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6fba…26dcbacked Detroit Tigers56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2923152.8%122 W · 109 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Detroit Tigers56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2911352.2%59 W · 54 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a46…196cbacked San Diego Padres46c85.59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.371346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed San Diego Padres18c75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5419.8%4 W · 37 L-10.5wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-62.6%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed San Diego Padres45c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.547848.5%232 W · 246 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3046659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed San Diego Padres46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033051.8%171 W · 159 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x563c…0dbfbacked San Diego Padres47c59.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8411449.1%56 W · 58 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed San Diego Padres45c59.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6227146.9%127 W · 144 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5f…e4bcbacked San Diego Padres37c58.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.314420.5%9 W · 35 L-9.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed San Diego Padres46c57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.510539%41 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Detroit Tigers77c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.66,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf770…f4bdbacked Detroit Tigers56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.571090%9 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick54cpaid+66.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked San Diego Padres45c53.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2431250%156 W · 156 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.