MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec8461c1d6abc4303524fa2c955afb7a0027fff61431a6289fc06c07ac410c08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,700$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…eb76backed No | 44c | 1,369$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed No | 44c | 1,365$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.31 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4d…8e7ebacked No | 41c | 1,129$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,073$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.02 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 44c | 850$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed No | 46c | 821.2$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.45 | 119 | 61.3%73 W · 46 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 49c | 811.49$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.54 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…1b63backed No | 42c | 541.88$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 57c | 499.98$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 56c | 371.06$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.13 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc2…eaefbacked No | 47c | 367.83$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 56c | 358.12$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.54 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Yes | 58c | 308.8$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.09 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed No | 54c | 277.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 39c | 254.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes | 61c | 254.1$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed No | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed No | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 54c | 167$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa959…6a33backed No | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes | 60c | 125.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…a00fbacked No | 42c | 109.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…0624backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed Yes | 63c | 23.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padresthis page
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego PadresDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.