TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5023…a00f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NHL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 53 out of 100; worst UFC at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT5444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.15
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.74
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.15
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$12.66
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.49
Spread: Lakers (-14.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$17.3
Hawks vs. Heatbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.74
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$9.43
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 244.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.47
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$16.17
Jazz vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.74
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.95
Spread: Raptors (-14.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.32
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$18.47
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.63
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+139.1%+$28.07
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 248.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$18.47
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.02
Spread: Rockets (-18.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$17.63
Spread: Bulls (-3.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$17.8
Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$17.6
Spread: Bulls (-5.5)backed Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.76
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.88
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$18.4
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.68
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.29
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$16.1
Houston Astros vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$22.62
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$13.37
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$15.82
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.72
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.65
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$8.53
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$14.8
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$27.3
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$24.6
NRFI: Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padresbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$63.8
NRFI: Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 17 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ducks vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.64
Wild vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$14.06
Oilers vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.4
Predators vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$14.62
Blues vs. Ducksbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$19.25
Ducks vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$16.66
Maple Leafs vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.1
Flames vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$25.3
Flyers vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.2
Capitals vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.4
Avalanche vs. Jetsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$14.8
Oilers vs. Utahbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$61.11
Capitals vs. Bluesbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Sharks vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
All 14 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Valorant — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Team Envy vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked Team Envy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Valorant: M80 vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stagebacked M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.27
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stagebacked SaD Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$10.04
Valorant: TYLOO vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Alphabacked TYLOO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$10.65
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stagebacked NRG Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.05
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Swiss Stage Group Stagebacked Nightblood Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Swiss Stage Group Stagebacked Evil Geniuses Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 7 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5)backed Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$14.45
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$14.08
Spread: Oklahoma Sooners (-9.5)backed Oklahoma Sooners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.74
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5)backed Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$27.36
All 4 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$12.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$7.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffsbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.