TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Flyers vs. Red Wings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flyersof Flyers, Red Wings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,175,533
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,184,268

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,175,533 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 641 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Flyers45c412,994$186,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226,876.6667051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Red Wings56c120,645$67,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,306.061,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Flyers44c105,262$46,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,212.611,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Flyers46c90,000$41,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,60048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f1…c5f8backed Red Wings54c75,700$40,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,8781450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Red Wings54c69,506$37,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,533.4540351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Red Wings55c62,296$34,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,108.1148549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Flyers46c62,058$28,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,511.4711644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Red Wings54c50,230$27,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,124.4524349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Red Wings54c50,169$27,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,091.5116442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Red Wings56c25,230$14,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,222.391,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Flyers43c25,000$10,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,25083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Red Wings57c21,781$12,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,360.7436748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Red Wings54c21,495$11,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,607.4812838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Flyers46c18,888$8,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,199.5121850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Red Wings55c17,089$9,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,393.4761950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Red Wings50c13,927$6,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,944.227448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Red Wings56c13,924$7,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8505541.8%23 W · 32 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Red Wings56c13,141$7,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,346.9340356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Red Wings55c12,188$6,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,703.45639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Red Wings54c11,555$6,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,245.31,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Red Wings54c11,050$5,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,96714553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Red Wings0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1039343%169 W · 224 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a65…9142backed Flyers64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.952166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Red Wings4c9,988$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.474912.2%6 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Red Wings55c9,891$5,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,440.0561953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Red Wings55c9,822$5,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,366.7937754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Flyers44c9,252$4,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,181.2785250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Red Wings55c9,091$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004348.8%21 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-22.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9bd3…41f8backed Red Wings9c8,120$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.793240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Red Wings56c7,152$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0054551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Red Wings55c6,978$3,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,803.9959450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Red Wings54c6,600$3,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,56451452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Red Wings54c6,563$3,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,531.261,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Red Wings54c6,480$3,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.218641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Red Wings55c6,207$3,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,423.5779350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Flyers44c6,020$2,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,380.7914954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Flyers44c6,000$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,36011553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Red Wings57c6,000$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,42010145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32dd…c881backed Flyers43c5,798$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,304.861675%12 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Red Wings54c5,687$3,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,092.458544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Red Wings54c5,060$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.45350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Flyers45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Flyers45c4,680$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,57412047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Flyers44c4,652$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.021,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Red Wings5c4,560$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5430259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Red Wings55c4,525$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,491.521,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c9a…b30fbacked Red Wings55c4,520$2,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,486250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Red Wings56c4,170$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.4143548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d56…a287backed Red Wings16c4,129$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Flyers46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Red Wings56c4,000$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,22020450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Flyers73c3,931$2,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.21,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff72…6146backed Red Wings4c3,927$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…30d5backed Red Wings54c3,685$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9901040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Red Wings54c3,645$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.5533450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Red Wings56c3,600$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.0260249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Red Wings57c3,509$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Red Wings56c3,429$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.073647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Flyers44c3,208$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.211,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2c…dfe7backed Red Wings57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7101353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Red Wings57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Flyers44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68027547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Red Wings55c2,864$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.8583149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Red Wings54c2,826$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,526.042347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Red Wings55c2,589$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.0114650%73 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Red Wings3c2,238$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7233234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Red Wings54c2,222$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2007244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Red Wings55c2,222$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.186649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b1…f737backed Red Wings15c2,200$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32828447.9%136 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Red Wings5c2,002$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6627334.4%94 W · 179 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Red Wings55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10026750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Red Wings56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1204264.3%27 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings20c1,948$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.62,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Red Wings29c1,913$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.343754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Red Wings55c1,901$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.4947951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Red Wings56c1,900$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.4150251.2%257 W · 245 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked Red Wings54c1,892$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.67837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Flyers58c1,848$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.711,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Red Wings57c1,832$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.0913252.3%69 W · 63 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa070…1af3backed Red Wings57c1,819$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.482339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Red Wings29c1,793$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.782,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3fa5…4f56backed Red Wings56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Red Wings57c1,767$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0071315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.5wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-75.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb6ce…a992backed Red Wings34c1,750$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60012328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e58…3864backed Red Wings55c1,650$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.776246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Red Wings55c1,618$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.491,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Red Wings57c1,525$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.6166552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Flyers67c1,510$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.314757.1%84 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Red Wings55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82525552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Flyers44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.9913446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Flyers44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.9860337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Flyers46c1,400$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75644551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Red Wings40c1,320$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5307258.3%42 W · 30 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed Red Wings54c1,312$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.8710548.6%51 W · 54 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Red Wings54c1,266$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.644247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings16c1,256$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.712,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Red Wings55c1,213$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.618350.6%42 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d9…41c7backed Flyers45c1,173$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.332458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Red Wings55c1,132$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.145955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.