NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x591a6488220b246e64f8c942141638f096f92b089c1b59f94d2a62031908e16f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 680$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.4 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 25c | 608.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 52c | 480$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 76c | 413$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 75c | 398$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 23c | 376.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…ac07backed Over | 77c | 355.88$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 77cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Under | 24c | 245$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Under | 48c | 205$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 76c | 185$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 37c | 176$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 25c | 126.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 53c | 120.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 24c | 109$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 75c | 105.97$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 65.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 46c | 62.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 34c | 58.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 36c | 53.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7c…07cebacked Over | 66c | 50.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…bfefbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -13.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 208 | 55.8%116 W · 92 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 29.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 76c | 29.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 37c | 27.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 53c | 20.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 74c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5this page
- Flyers vs. Red WingsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.