TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Oilers vs. Utah

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Utahof Oilers, Utah
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,488,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,571,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,488,559 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,028 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Utah54c296,063$160,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135,681.521,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Oilers45c243,815$109,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109,112.8851550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Utah54c231,092$125,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105,538.671,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Utah55c105,217$58,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,217.2712835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Oilers47c88,078$41,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,296.0136748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Oilers47c79,182$37,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,023.7467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Utah51c69,716$35,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,888.71,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Oilers44c63,332$28,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,088.187038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95de…c9b2backed Oilers60c58,880$35,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,583.843243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Utah50c55,376$27,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,654.32,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Oilers45c54,292$24,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,333.1747951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Utah48c54,028$25,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,332.6127448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Oilers45c53,758$24,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,128.8644848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Oilers44c50,000$22,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,999.948545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c45…0ac6backed Utah24c48,048$11,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,516.591428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Oilers49c47,082$23,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,128.0212654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Utah53c32,800$17,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,41683652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Oilers50c25,051$12,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,510.6719759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a08…64a7backed Utah51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,800580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+58.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Utah52c19,500$10,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,342.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Utah54c19,427$10,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,021.6110941.3%45 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Oilers63c19,176$12,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,136.7389636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Oilers51c18,050$9,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,178.3118853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Utah49c18,048$8,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,125.312,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Utah51c16,617$8,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,177.6418452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Oilers51c16,253$8,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,208.933450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Oilers69c15,229$10,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,511.025350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Utah56c14,003$7,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,161.5140356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Oilers43c13,525$5,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,815.8712146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Oilers45c13,520$6,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,097.6161950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Utah56c13,425$7,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,914.944452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Utah53c12,570$6,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,907.914954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Oilers45c12,541$5,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,696.6527850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Oilers43c12,332$5,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,302.765259.6%31 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Utah36c11,641$4,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,493.737258.3%42 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x29b1…f737backed Oilers44c11,364$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00028447.9%136 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Oilers45c11,111$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Utah47c10,033$4,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,326.742,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Oilers47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cb3…8ed1backed Utah52c10,000$5,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7601838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Oilers43c9,680$4,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,162.43240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Utah18c9,437$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,772.2941850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed Utah54c9,259$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fb…8feebacked Utah54c8,575$4,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,981.2719050.5%96 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Oilers45c8,500$3,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,865.5743548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Oilers45c8,500$3,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,861.5260249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Oilers64c8,302$5,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,319.652,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Utah53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,76029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oilers53c7,597$4,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,008.691,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Oilers66c7,403$4,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,875.2652172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Oilers61c7,323$4,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,448.691,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed Oilers50c7,178$3,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,567.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+68.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a8…06d9backed Oilers43c7,039$3,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,026.982035%7 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Oilers45c6,732$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.851,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Utah56c6,500$3,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,860.0538849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Oilers53c6,497$3,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,411.4137754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Oilers47c6,300$2,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,98115749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Utah56c6,235$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.569457.4%54 W · 40 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc689…5250backed Utah53c5,999$3,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819.383959%23 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Oilers44c5,742$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.489038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Oilers67c5,416$3,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,628.911346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Oilers46c5,400$2,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,48414553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Utah48c5,371$2,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,788.9913856.5%78 W · 60 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+32.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Oilers44c5,280$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,323.218641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Oilers43c5,211$2,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240.875841.4%24 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Oilers48c5,031$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,429.9989355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Oilers44c4,999$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.748252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21c7…cad0backed Utah58c4,948$2,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.19450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Oilers44c4,771$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,106.6459450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Oilers45c4,663$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.879751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Oilers45c4,538$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.897244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Utah54c4,444$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.24771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Utah53c4,442$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.431,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Utah45c4,184$1,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,313.052,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Oilers44c4,089$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7997755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa829…bc90backed Utah52c4,000$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Utah54c4,000$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,86030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Utah52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9201,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Oilers44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76027547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f62…570cbacked Oilers44c3,931$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Utah50c3,700$1,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.6510066%66 W · 34 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa624…eb73backed Oilers45c3,574$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd714…9a62backed Oilers44c3,500$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5406845.6%31 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Oilers45c3,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.8589249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x039c…b202backed Oilers44c3,222$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.464738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Oilers43c3,168$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.152347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Utah40c3,016$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.6122853.9%123 W · 105 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Utah56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.0239752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Utah56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Oilers44c3,000$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31011153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…4540backed Utah53c2,916$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Utah56c2,679$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.572360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba99…26bbbacked Oilers47c2,594$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.842853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Oilers44c2,564$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12824952.2%130 W · 119 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Oilers48c2,555$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.1714062.1%87 W · 53 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Oilers49c2,541$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.6813252.3%69 W · 63 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Utah52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2003151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Utah56c2,432$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.587149.3%35 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Oilers44c2,327$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.8211243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Oilers69c2,239$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.5614946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.