MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd0f93cf9dd1dac4c2b7125bb13bb8d2f492a260f4844fe9d9fe0ace3dba0f87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked No | 48c | 6,923$3,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,354 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 52c | 4,308$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,082.19 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 51c | 502$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.62 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 42c | 456.92$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.67 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed No | 45c | 441.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…eb76backed No | 46c | 350.65$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 58c | 343.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.37 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed No | 47c | 341$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 53c | 328.62$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.45 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…0b74backed No | 48c | 260.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes | 61c | 246.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed No | 47c | 211.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed No | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 43c | 189.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Yes | 51c | 131.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…a00fbacked No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 55c | 88.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed Yes | 58c | 80.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 55c | 63.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…0624backed Yes | 57c | 44.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Yes | 51c | 28.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Redsthis page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati RedsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.