MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x023863c1147ca40bac401e54a6c3f7e8a145cbb3feb0af5be808af82498a9efa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 1,792$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 890.91$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 663.12$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.02 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe0…6e30backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 350$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 324.42$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.1 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 296.46$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.31 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743a…ddcdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 197.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 181.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 170.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 153.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 129.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 121.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Boston Red Sox | 22c | 95.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 89.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 69.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 63.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…4b14backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 60.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 55.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 54.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 50.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 44.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 42.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 42.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…98ddbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 33.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -10.5wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 29.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 25.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…5692backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 25.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 22.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati RedsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- NRFI: Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.