MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a73864ed90f6068930d37bcb3e5888185f249ea7e80845acd15b51148cb837d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 45c | 1,644$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 55c | 1,111$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.95 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Under | 53c | 982.04$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.56 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 47c | 925.85$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.27 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…dc82backed Under | 56c | 894.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 40c | 697.28$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.93 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 666.1$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 60c | 474.28$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.71 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 406.87$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.21 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed Under | 52c | 396.61$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.37 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 339.76$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 229.11$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 47c | 213$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 54c | 165.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 55c | 153.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 62c | 112.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 44c | 110.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…2c57backed Over | 47c | 100.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 82.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…1641backed Under | 56c | 76.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 60c | 60.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Over | 31c | 48.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…14c4backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 43c | 37.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…58a3backed Over | 45c | 33.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…9898backed Over | 47c | 25.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 60c | 21.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 68c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 68c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati RedsBoston Red Sox won
- NRFI: Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.