TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Warriors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rocketsof Rockets, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,459,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,973,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,459,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,615 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Rockets79c219,268$173,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,149.266248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Warriors39c179,949$70,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,702.6587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Warriors40c178,340$71,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,33611137.8%42 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85f0…3f67backed Rockets60c168,149$100,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,919.824546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Rockets61c165,898$101,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,859.048750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x959a…7b64backed Rockets61c138,769$84,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,120.043357.6%19 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+42%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Warriors39c98,870$38,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,227.3420744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Rockets62c94,523$58,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,889.847243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Warriors39c90,000$35,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,099.9643148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783c…146abacked Rockets58c84,667$49,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,4951457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d82…3847backed Warriors15c82,602$12,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,363.42250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6f…e0ddbacked Rockets77c66,156$51,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,050.896744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Rockets75c61,175$45,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,578.335064%32 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc690…42b8backed Rockets72c59,703$42,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,762.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick69cpaid-58.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Warriors24c53,989$12,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,939.228035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…eee3backed Warriors0c52,992$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.012913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Warriors27c51,580$13,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,987.581,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaaf…6c31backed Rockets61c46,778$28,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,243.42560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Rockets60c37,401$22,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,876.7416346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Warriors39c36,781$14,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,344.781,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Warriors1c35,179$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.1921550.2%108 W · 107 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Warriors5c35,110$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.681,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Rockets60c33,333$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,333.331,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Rockets72c32,987$23,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,149.6976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Rockets61c30,282$18,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,816.11,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed Rockets60c28,883$17,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,553.21181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick54cpaid+46.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfec8…50f7backed Rockets69c26,424$18,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,191.545567.3%37 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Warriors27c26,091$7,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,044.453,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Warriors26c25,697$6,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,652.311,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Warriors39c25,534$10,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,041.211,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors38c25,000$9,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,50074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d8…02c7backed Warriors0c23,465$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2940%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c34…c469backed Warriors1c21,036$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.68446.8%3 W · 41 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Rockets60c20,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,00021951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Warriors44c20,000$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,799.9870147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…0b9cbacked Warriors0c18,835$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2211447.4%54 W · 60 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Warriors40c18,190$7,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,276.1861851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Warriors42c17,893$7,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,592.611335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Rockets76c17,668$13,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,193.28061.3%49 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf402…df7cbacked Rockets62c17,590$10,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,684.051770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Warriors40c17,554$6,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,991.5490650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Rockets56c17,167$9,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,525.8322458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Warriors5c15,715$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.991,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Warriors39c15,000$5,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,85015740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Warriors28c14,913$4,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,104.193148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Rockets61c14,649$8,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,713.1120758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Warriors33c13,933$4,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,576.7949244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Warriors35c13,896$4,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,852.5789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Warriors24c13,464$3,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,253.372,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Warriors38c13,175$5,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,006.61,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Warriors41c11,749$4,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,782.5319957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Warriors12c11,661$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.711,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Warriors51c11,516$5,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,922.3610239.2%40 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacb…a0e3backed Rockets61c11,426$6,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,456.31369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeef4…5ed3backed Warriors37c11,426$4,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,278.641361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Warriors39c11,194$4,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,371.139838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Warriors39c10,808$4,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,223.694,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors39c10,782$4,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,164.854,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Warriors37c10,599$3,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,937.082,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Warriors0c10,566$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.315213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Rockets60c10,199$6,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,096.9242348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Warriors39c10,000$3,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,86543438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Rockets60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00019150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Rockets58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.9910158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1847…d94abacked Warriors1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Rockets61c10,000$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,899.919745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Rockets61c9,926$6,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,871.1820352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Warriors40c9,833$3,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,933.1220551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c36…7854backed Rockets62c9,772$6,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,713.362263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Rockets68c9,742$6,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.4212756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Warriors39c9,500$3,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,66565939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf38d…18cebacked Warriors35c9,343$3,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,269.671020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-65.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Warriors24c9,309$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.463179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Warriors16c9,179$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.924257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Warriors39c9,093$3,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.293,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba04…310bbacked Rockets76c8,819$6,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.292528%7 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Warriors32c8,328$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,624.6824937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…ffcdbacked Warriors25c8,045$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.254030%12 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Rockets61c8,005$4,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,121.929743.3%42 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Rockets60c8,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f6…673abacked Warriors39c7,720$3,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,010.641050%5 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+45.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Warriors39c7,500$2,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,89086641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Warriors46c7,362$3,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.610747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Rockets67c7,326$4,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,425.414055%22 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Warriors39c7,200$2,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,77823742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed Warriors40c7,200$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.8112945.7%59 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf70f…3c97backed Rockets63c7,177$4,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.214276.2%32 W · 10 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Rockets68c7,157$4,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.0127865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Rockets65c7,072$4,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.2617051.8%88 W · 82 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Warriors39c7,052$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,750.2724942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Warriors36c6,952$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,530.346341.3%26 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Rockets54c6,947$3,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,176.0511843.2%51 W · 67 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Rockets61c6,836$4,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.1287750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Warriors20c6,770$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.136023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Warriors34c6,686$2,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,306.5612257.4%70 W · 52 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ff…f0c4backed Rockets56c6,641$3,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,951.187147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Warriors55c6,053$3,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,311.5817553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd59d…8e9fbacked Warriors40c6,025$2,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4101136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Rockets59c6,015$3,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.9229250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Rockets70c5,972$4,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.2230157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.