TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,522
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,643

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,522 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No49c1,644$813 inLost-$813.445,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40b4…1483backed Yes53c1,107$583 inWon+$524.1714045.7%64 W · 76 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x610b…b5b2backed Yes61c1,106$674 inWon+$431.92875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+39.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes50c1,084$541 inWon+$542.884342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked No39c1,060$413 inLost-$413.31,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Yes46c1,000$460 inWon+$54072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c43…31c1backed No54c913.08$493 inLost-$493.0712044.2%53 W · 67 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No47c235.85$111 inLost-$110.8521443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No42c225.97$95 inLost-$94.9179650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed No48c200$96 inLost-$9640053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Yes51c98.92$51 inWon+$48.3314446.5%67 W · 77 L-0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7861…3d27backed No54c70.32$38 inLost-$38.087930.4%24 W · 55 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed No55c61.92$34 inLost-$34.0614443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05a9…df8cbacked Yes50c54.32$27 inWon+$27.162176.2%16 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+24.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe1e…7ee3backed No55c48.65$27 inLost-$26.769654.2%52 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x217f…b8ccbacked Yes54c45.02$24 inWon+$20.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon+$2025642.2%108 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde17…b0a9backed Yes50c38.8$19 inWon+$19.43040%12 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked No50c31.22$16 inLost-$15.52850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed No50c29.26$15 inLost-$14.6340546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No46c25$12 inLost-$11.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4838…0db9backed No49c24.24$12 inLost-$11.881050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4a…d477backed Yes70c17.39$12 inWon+$5.2410560%63 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.