Us Politics · resolved market
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9ad3308c22f80ba7fcc1006f81efa1cfc536c8568e9f04a95f699e8b5b7836a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 3c | 9,667$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 6,785$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.67 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,002$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…df89backed Yes | 7c | 3,927$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa0…adf9backed Yes | 3c | 3,111$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,033$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee70…9673backed Yes | 0c | 3,002$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,670$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,067$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeff…711bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,938$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Yes | 2c | 1,824$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 1,806$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…1514backed Yes | 6c | 1,786$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…5107backed Yes | 3c | 1,549$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a06dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,502$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…4a98backed Yes | 4c | 1,415$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c89…3681backed Yes | 7c | 1,324$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,317$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca7…8cffbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,162$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…4505backed Yes | 5c | 1,101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e0…ad22backed Yes | 4c | 1,014$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 947.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes | 5c | 901.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed Yes | 4c | 859.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 810.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 6c | 800$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 6c | 800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…6aa4backed Yes | 2c | 774.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…1598backed Yes | 4c | 765.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…0b7dbacked Yes | 6c | 727.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 6c | 715.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 700$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 649.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 4c | 643.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 7c | 606.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 6c | 513.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…72adbacked Yes | 5c | 502.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…9d8cbacked Yes | 5c | 445.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Yes | 3c | 433.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 6c | 423.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c2…cc3abacked Yes | 4c | 409.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…b584backed Yes | 6c | 408.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes | 6c | 399.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4758…e308backed Yes | 3c | 399.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb95…0347backed Yes | 4c | 385$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 381.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…3fb9backed Yes | 5c | 378.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 4c | 349.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 339.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 3c | 335.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3263…6e17backed Yes | 7c | 319.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…f1c2backed Yes | 6c | 305.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…2ccbbacked Yes | 5c | 301.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 6c | 291.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…eb4dbacked Yes | 7c | 291.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad8…5b77backed Yes | 6c | 281.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cd…ce41backed Yes | 7c | 272.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 8c | 240$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +9.7wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 6c | 202.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…f9f0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e5…0cb0backed Yes | 6c | 199.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…4c3fbacked Yes | 5c | 198.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cd…73c5backed Yes | 7c | 162.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…a09cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31d…789bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 62.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb715…685fbacked Yes | 28c | 57.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 70c | 22.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…3ba6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.