NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58e10d0e99316ea73ee0d7859ed68946395fba32a7135d4c8fc5cc08b4644136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 764.24$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.83 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 755.54$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.21 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 51c | 743.99$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.56 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Over | 49c | 673.47$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 11c | 440.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…9bd9backed Under | 52c | 292.31$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 11c | 278.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 254.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 56c | 215.43$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 49c | 177.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 11c | 145$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Over | 47c | 128$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Under | 53c | 124.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…2df7backed Under | 57c | 96.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 35c | 63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 51c | 56.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 51c | 46.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 54c | 45.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Under | 52c | 35.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 48c | 33.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…614bbacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…bd7bbacked Over | 48c | 23.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…68fbbacked Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…31b0backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab9…6021backed Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 68c | 21.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…3076backed Over | 47c | 21.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…0258backed Under | 53c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 64c | 20.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Under | 52c | 20.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad5…085ebacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7c…b103backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 65c | 17.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 65c | 17.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.