NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa625c387d20df69a6f9aa4acc635b295ff456210b2a9da67b76588815b591aae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 2,005$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.13 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 38c | 1,147$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.03 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 61c | 770.94$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.27 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 38c | 766.14$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.89 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 55c | 605.5$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.55 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 61c | 493.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 64c | 470.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.94 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 418.72$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Over | 60c | 370$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 39c | 336.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.3 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 41c | 317.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 38c | 317$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.54 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 59c | 295.93$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.11 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 60c | 278$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.8 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 35c | 207.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 39c | 201.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.53 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 51c | 198.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 61c | 164.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 39c | 103.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…d1c9backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 39c | 91.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 60c | 75.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 61.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 39c | 56.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 60c | 53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Under | 41c | 47.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 37c | 46.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 39.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 40c | 38.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 60c | 38.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Under | 63c | 34.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac9…207cbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e61…ccdfbacked Over | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5406…adb6backed Over | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.