TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Knicks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Hawks, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,528,842
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,831,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,528,842 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,463 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf28e…cab2backed Hawks0c1,326,469$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.4756646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Knicks69c991,422$687,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304,312.757243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Hawks31c860,064$264,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264,108.1487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Hawks29c491,437$143,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,241.0436549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Knicks71c266,295$189,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,899.3966248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Hawks31c171,347$53,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,544.4848343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Knicks74c134,518$99,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,017.1685742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks31c119,874$37,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,161.061,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Hawks10c99,698$9,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,969.8111333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Hawks0c97,558$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6610718.7%20 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Hawks32c89,898$28,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,767.3724831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Knicks68c85,296$58,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,294.769745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Hawks27c78,078$21,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,185.41,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Knicks72c67,719$48,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,073.72,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Hawks28c66,459$18,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,930.764825%12 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…b8f7backed Hawks32c66,004$21,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,121.181553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Knicks71c61,069$43,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,949.0442645.5%194 W · 232 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Hawks31c55,000$17,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,049.9339842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Knicks71c51,831$37,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,774.581,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Knicks68c50,040$34,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,022.84143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Knicks68c50,000$34,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,0001,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Hawks7c49,655$3,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,475.859938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Knicks69c49,070$33,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,211.714533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Knicks69c49,070$33,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,211.720758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hawks17c48,931$8,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,345.541,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Hawks31c45,800$14,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,197.928750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Hawks1c41,622$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.2346426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Knicks69c41,362$28,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,904.5942348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Hawks31c40,000$12,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,399.991,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c17…3844backed Hawks1c36,933$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.294953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Knicks69c34,944$24,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,832.5637355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Hawks23c34,811$7,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,928.278225.6%21 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Hawks31c33,516$10,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,389.862,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Hawks4c32,807$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.023179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Hawks31c32,000$9,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,92059347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Knicks74c31,368$23,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,239.651,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Hawks31c31,068$9,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,581.4411737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Knicks67c30,115$20,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,039.2249244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x813a…b67fbacked Hawks32c28,776$9,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,208.321040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcae4…e479backed Knicks73c27,020$19,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,295.513151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Knicks76c25,953$19,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,229.7771654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Knicks73c24,000$17,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,377.1419033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac25…433fbacked Hawks32c22,757$7,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,342.788038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed Hawks3c21,205$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.49614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Knicks74c20,939$15,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,383.651,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9410…ffcdbacked Hawks19c20,553$3,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,869.994030%12 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Hawks1c18,859$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.435213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc816…7917backed Hawks18c18,537$3,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,336.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0c…cab8backed Hawks27c18,517$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks32c16,533$5,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,245.964,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Hawks32c16,501$5,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,280.2932351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Knicks75c16,181$12,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,112.8536023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23ba…01ecbacked Hawks33c15,276$5,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,040.941020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Hawks19c15,111$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.198035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Hawks32c14,983$4,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,794.4810530.5%32 W · 73 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Knicks69c14,458$9,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,481.946459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Knicks69c14,413$9,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,428.6827163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks31c14,375$4,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,389.364,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Hawks32c14,174$4,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,535.7190650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Hawks17c13,780$2,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,309.4361336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed Hawks27c13,119$3,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,489.62347.8%11 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+58.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x720e…17b0backed Knicks78c12,769$9,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.4113957.6%80 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Hawks28c11,695$3,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3099741.2%40 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Hawks30c11,366$3,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,407.8320946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x641f…f31fbacked Hawks32c10,995$3,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,470.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Knicks69c10,943$7,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,392.216259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks71c10,535$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,035.338,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Hawks30c10,378$3,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,147.1765349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Hawks32c10,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234b…972fbacked Hawks31c10,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,050933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Knicks76c9,936$7,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.139851%50 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Hawks28c9,856$2,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,720.8810743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Knicks77c8,852$6,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.742335.9%152 W · 271 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Hawks31c8,745$2,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,710.8572648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Knicks75c8,629$6,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,126.0424937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…1810backed Knicks69c8,612$5,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,669.855100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6acf…fb01backed Knicks69c8,480$5,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,628.93580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71c9…435fbacked Knicks75c8,233$6,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Hawks0c8,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.25502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d7…e99cbacked Hawks3c7,732$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.46714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Hawks1c7,716$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.827211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…964abacked Knicks69c7,425$5,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,301.854100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe16d…07a9backed Knicks69c7,315$5,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,267.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73ff…0facbacked Knicks72c7,012$5,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.86357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b1…da36backed Hawks27c7,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.992441.7%10 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.19per pick23cpaid+115.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Hawks31c7,000$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,169.9515850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Knicks77c6,990$5,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.592,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Hawks25c6,930$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.462144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Hawks28c6,906$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.2889850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab7…24ecbacked Knicks80c6,648$5,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.6816065%104 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Knicks68c6,590$4,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.9976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Knicks68c6,480$4,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,073.68763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Knicks69c6,360$4,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,971.5829858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff9…a78bbacked Knicks69c6,138$4,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.795048%24 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Knicks69c6,131$4,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.7541954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d0…5a98backed Knicks69c6,093$4,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.844257.1%24 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Knicks69c5,986$4,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.8221446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Knicks69c5,974$4,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,851.868662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Hawks31c5,800$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.0531644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Hawks16c5,730$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.9344345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.