MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72a6b6985abc290d3167f514e945bfb5295d8eb53109e4b57df1c91a23477350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 5,363$2,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,395.32 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 4,231$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.31 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 3,333$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.85 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 2,026$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.85 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 1,120$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.61 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 656.77$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.55 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Washington Nationals | 67c | 648.83$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.93 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 623.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 621.41$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.67 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 615.76$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 560.15$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.06 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 437.84$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.03 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 395.82$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.87 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 380.7$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.7 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 349.96$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.48 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 307.31$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 289.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 253.72$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 218.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 118.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 98.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 93.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 93.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 89.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 70.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 63.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 54.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 51.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 46.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafcd…8014backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 45.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…b100backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 43.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 43.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…59e2backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 35.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 32.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 22.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.