MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdca23e47e2fab16329ec10ced61170141d8016c2cad71e63981bb1f86dc950b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec7e…5fddbacked Under | 49c | 5,097$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,522.04 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 48c | 3,892$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.07 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 51c | 3,720$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.54 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 52c | 2,955$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.64 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 49c | 2,955$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.06 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 51c | 1,918$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.38 | 1,408 | 48.8%687 W · 721 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 1,176$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.22 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Over | 48c | 1,025$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.86 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 52c | 562.98$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.53 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 48c | 543.82$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.78 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 53c | 371.72$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.01 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 283.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Under | 53c | 223.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 53c | 206.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…7123backed Over | 64c | 186.01$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 54c | 183.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 54c | 182.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 52c | 144.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 141.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 52c | 126.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 121.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 113.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 48c | 109.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 48c | 98.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed Over | 48c | 71.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 48c | 68.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 48c | 67.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 52c | 66.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Under | 53c | 61.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 53c | 55.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 53c | 50.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 48c | 45.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 48c | 41.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 52c | 41.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…06b3backed Over | 48c | 41.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 52c | 39.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 46c | 26.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 54c | 26.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 73c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- NRFI: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesWashington Nationals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.