MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd3ed0833bfb837bd546f436a072daffa2fbe6d5b2c61566e945a4dd45492984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Atlanta Braves, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Athletics | 59c | 29,904$17,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,260.83 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 20,777$8,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,518.77 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…f082backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 5,876$2,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,409.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 4,248$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.52 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…b956backed Athletics | 57c | 3,510$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 3,333$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.63 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 1,864$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.52 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 58c | 1,185$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Athletics | 60c | 1,119$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Athletics | 60c | 899.87$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.95 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Atlanta Braves | 48c | 768$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.64 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 57c | 764.3$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.65 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Athletics | 58c | 633.44$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 482.9$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 401.5$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 58c | 377.78$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 57c | 369.2$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Athletics | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Athletics | 60c | 164.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 157.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Athletics | 74c | 155.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b8…2cc9backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 117.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Athletics | 58c | 115.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Athletics | 57c | 111.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Athletics | 57c | 109.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Athletics | 58c | 104.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…9fcdbacked Athletics | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Athletics | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 61c | 87.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 83.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Athletics | 58c | 75.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 73.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Athletics | 58c | 67.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Atlanta Braves | 16c | 62.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe764…1857backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 58.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Athletics | 58c | 58.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Atlanta Braves | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc9…e2aabacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…4b1cbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 39.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Athletics | 63c | 39.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Athletics | 58c | 38.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 38.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics | 59c | 38.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Athletics | 59c | 38.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Athletics | 59c | 38.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Athletics | 59c | 38.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Athletics | 59c | 38.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Athletics | 59c | 38.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Athletics | 59c | 38.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…d5cdbacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 28.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 28.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…df70backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 28.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 26.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Athletics | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Athletics | 59c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Atlanta BravesAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- NRFI: Athletics vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.