TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Athletics, Atlanta Braves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$325,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e77…8c33backed Atlanta Braves59c107,345$63,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,333.8228350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Athletics41c98,261$40,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,974.1131149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Atlanta Braves41c12,625$5,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,118.2621656.5%122 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics52c8,715$4,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,208.272,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa75…f082backed Atlanta Braves10c4,726$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics41c4,201$1,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,482.425,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Athletics41c3,388$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.8416547.3%78 W · 87 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics78c2,704$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.4912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Athletics41c2,353$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.0813254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Atlanta Braves58c2,236$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.161,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Atlanta Braves59c2,121$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.632348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Atlanta Braves15c2,015$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.051,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Atlanta Braves60c1,715$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.712551.2%64 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves20c1,485$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.946,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Atlanta Braves30c1,437$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.1594034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Atlanta Braves58c1,330$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-51.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Atlanta Braves59c1,289$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.514052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics62c1,261$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.51,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20f6…0f69backed Atlanta Braves34c1,185$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.525137.3%19 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x47bc…9504backed Athletics42c1,069$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.986653%35 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa68…94a7backed Athletics78c1,017$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.664456.8%25 W · 19 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Athletics41c990.1$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5841050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Athletics41c971.71$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.311,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves59c910.86$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.156,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Atlanta Braves20c836.69$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7914039.3%55 W · 85 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics39c818.7$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.286,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Athletics57c777$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.1146239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Atlanta Braves22c755.28$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.249219.6%18 W · 74 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Atlanta Braves6c750.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8711125.2%28 W · 83 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Atlanta Braves20c687.85$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.296243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Athletics62c654.07$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.7970735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Athletics68c647.78$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.944,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Athletics42c574.52$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.2232350.5%163 W · 160 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics66c563.39$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Athletics42c548.82$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.1546547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Athletics79c506.04$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.091,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Atlanta Braves59c487.7$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.7421052.9%111 W · 99 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Athletics41c469.94$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.2644643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Atlanta Braves59c459.21$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.011,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Atlanta Braves25c458.74$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6219452.6%102 W · 92 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d0…8503backed Athletics59c458.64$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.043842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Athletics80c455.29$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.721,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Athletics41c446.74$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.4817151.5%88 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Atlanta Braves31c443.21$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.915243.4%66 W · 86 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Athletics41c414.78$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.7250751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Athletics62c410.17$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8365050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Atlanta Braves25c375.3$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8718056.1%101 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Athletics46c373.62$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.6412339%48 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Athletics41c370.41$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.5412154.5%66 W · 55 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Atlanta Braves57c329.48$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8936649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Atlanta Braves59c299.92$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9535245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Atlanta Braves59c292.62$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.651553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Atlanta Braves59c247.98$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3110057%57 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Atlanta Braves52c246.84$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.012,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a2…3c41backed Atlanta Braves59c246.79$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6115857%90 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b8c…31c3backed Atlanta Braves24c236.66$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.85841.4%24 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed Athletics63c232.81$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.142657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Athletics41c232.47$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1611953.8%64 W · 55 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics42c232.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.831,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3d8…c0f2backed Athletics42c231.65$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.366857.4%39 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Atlanta Braves55c223.01$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.751,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81b0…6592backed Athletics41c220.23$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.941258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed Athletics41c212.21$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.211643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Athletics42c209.45$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.4831949.5%158 W · 161 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Athletics41c207.04$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1538455.2%212 W · 172 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Athletics41c201.89$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.1228049.6%139 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Atlanta Braves9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.29031.1%28 W · 62 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Athletics41c198.01$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8322851.3%117 W · 111 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Atlanta Braves59c195.08$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.11,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Athletics42c193.04$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.963,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Athletics63c191.67$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6416351.5%84 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Athletics32c172$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9678146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74f3…c784backed Atlanta Braves58c169.89$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.542564%16 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf40e…9addbacked Atlanta Braves59c165.32$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.546958%40 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Atlanta Braves59c165.32$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5411352.2%59 W · 54 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x125f…b7e8backed Atlanta Braves59c165.32$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.542142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Atlanta Braves62c164.54$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.021,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Atlanta Braves60c162.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.613361.7%82 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Atlanta Braves60c162.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.68351.8%43 W · 40 L-8.9wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Atlanta Braves55c157.63$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0918754%101 W · 86 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea0…865dbacked Atlanta Braves59c153.51$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7216952.1%88 W · 81 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Atlanta Braves22c151.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3618239.6%72 W · 110 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Atlanta Braves59c143.33$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5711153.2%59 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Athletics42c140.77$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.656240.3%25 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Athletics42c138.02$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0540648.5%197 W · 209 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf27…67ebbacked Atlanta Braves60c135.4$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.24944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Athletics41c131.15$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3825851.9%134 W · 124 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Atlanta Braves59c130.07$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1117050%85 W · 85 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Atlanta Braves24c123.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.51,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Atlanta Braves20c119.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5684122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Athletics41c116.72$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8626255.7%146 W · 116 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Atlanta Braves58c113$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5465549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab0…e0f5backed Athletics41c110.11$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.966063.3%38 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec38…ca10backed Athletics42c107.14$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1414347.6%68 W · 75 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Athletics42c103.14$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8210449%51 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c5…cb95backed Atlanta Braves10c101.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.063231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Athletics40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6014261.3%87 W · 55 L+18.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+24.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa689…15fcbacked Athletics42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5824346.9%114 W · 129 L-1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2798…a9c7backed Athletics39c99.66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616547.7%31 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.