MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd30c4bc1e225af2fe33770f8c61c4b97f02b531f43d84e7caca44a14282127aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 45c | 3,110$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.04 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Over | 47c | 2,246$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.65 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 2,145$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.93 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 54c | 1,654$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 67c | 1,490$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 1,322$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.34 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Under | 55c | 973$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 760.05$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 366.37$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.19 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 299.11$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 66c | 238.9$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.31 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 55c | 152.12$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 57c | 136.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 51c | 129.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 101.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 54c | 100.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 47c | 90.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 57c | 82.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 45c | 49.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 47.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 48c | 46.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 31c | 44.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 40c | 40.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 55c | 38.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Under | 32c | 31.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 49c | 20.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 55c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 54c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Atlanta BravesAthletics won
- NRFI: Athletics vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.