TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Bulls

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Pacers, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,993,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,051,868

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,993,814 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Bulls59c358,466$211,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,494.6766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Pacers41c292,812$120,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172,763.7411137.8%42 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Pacers46c110,000$50,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,0308750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Pacers38c70,085$26,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,602.1336359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pacers48c58,768$28,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,602.852,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Pacers40c50,819$20,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,491.529245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Pacers37c39,759$14,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,048.2119957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Bulls58c35,906$20,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,911.4920744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Bulls18c33,395$6,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,011.1728241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Bulls39c32,855$12,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,806.0417331.8%55 W · 118 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pacers51c29,824$15,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,636.412,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacers40c29,018$11,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,410.934,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bulls46c27,823$12,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,935.611,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Pacers38c26,612$10,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,499.161,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Bulls0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pacers62c24,833$15,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,496.891,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bulls0c24,557$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.521,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bulls38c21,684$8,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,213.221,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Pacers38c19,057$7,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,794.4935547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bulls62c18,832$11,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,6761,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ff…f0c4backed Bulls43c18,493$8,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,005.577147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Bulls63c16,560$10,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,432.828554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers38c16,325$6,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,094.44,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Bulls5c15,658$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.811033.6%37 W · 73 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pacers39c15,031$5,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,200.371,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Bulls62c14,679$9,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,101.291,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Pacers49c13,855$6,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,065.9827251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a114backed Pacers38c13,809$5,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,561.613554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Bulls37c13,771$5,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,161.663,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x853e…0d8cbacked Pacers39c13,056$5,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,964.1812042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Bulls60c12,496$7,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,497.8718648.9%91 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee3e…4116backed Bulls0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124721.3%10 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-64.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Pacers39c11,978$4,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,306.7937448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Bulls60c10,844$6,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,506.674748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pacers53c10,388$5,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,914.011,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Pacers41c10,000$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,90018045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9b…945abacked Bulls61c10,000$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1004151.2%21 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Bulls61c10,000$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,10031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed Bulls59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,899.9710641.5%44 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Bulls50c9,700$4,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,85032846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Bulls0c9,648$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.036240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Pacers38c9,292$3,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,761.1216346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Bulls61c9,278$5,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,659.41,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers65c8,890$5,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,136.173,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Bulls49c8,821$4,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,307.4538143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed Bulls39c8,286$3,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,198.517142.3%30 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Bulls34c8,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7001,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Bulls32c7,630$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,440.113544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Bulls0c7,560$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.67211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Pacers37c7,542$2,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,734.5615140.4%61 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers40c7,500$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Bulls61c7,452$4,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,545.821,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bulls0c7,150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.58820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bulls37c7,050$2,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,635.042,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a68…7b56backed Bulls64c6,115$3,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,913.68055%44 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Bulls62c5,825$3,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,589.4811843.2%51 W · 67 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Bulls0c5,650$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.316919.5%33 W · 136 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacers52c5,401$2,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,605.013,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Pacers37c5,400$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,418.8365939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Pacers49c5,141$2,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,643.825633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pacers47c5,036$2,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,670.339,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Pacers73c5,003$3,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.9476850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Bulls0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201234.9%6 W · 117 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Bulls62c5,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10062347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd937…d226backed Pacers39c5,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.991643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc86a…bcabbacked Bulls61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.991764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Bulls60c4,813$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.151,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…319ebacked Pacers41c4,742$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,797.593627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Bulls51c4,506$2,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,298.164252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Pacers50c4,437$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,224.1327865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Pacers39c4,293$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,618.4427241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Bulls35c4,271$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.4624937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Bulls60c4,227$2,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,536.7790650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Pacers36c4,200$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,670.6586641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfc…6762backed Pacers49c4,197$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,140.681931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers49c3,949$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,005.115,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Pacers68c3,938$2,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.7816959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Bulls59c3,822$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.031,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4084…357abacked Pacers41c3,764$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.932055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd59d…8e9fbacked Pacers38c3,753$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.441136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Pacers40c3,518$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.8221350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…0c02backed Pacers77c3,316$2,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Pacers38c3,273$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.0532540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ec9…02f6backed Pacers40c3,258$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.993327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Bulls64c3,174$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.6420843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Bulls21c3,173$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.4236023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Bulls61c3,154$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.2222948.5%111 W · 118 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Bulls53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed Pacers38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.9712945.7%59 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bulls43c2,897$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.8882442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Pacers51c2,756$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.617349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Bulls42c2,629$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.4218632.3%60 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls47c2,626$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.698,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Bulls14c2,598$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.3729547.5%140 W · 155 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc8…73cabacked Pacers36c2,552$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a3…4277backed Bulls63c2,548$1,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bulls4c2,489$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.381,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Pacers40c2,453$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.034658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11ad…20ddbacked Bulls63c2,449$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bbb…ed39backed Pacers37c2,445$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.