NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc21fa99582a98628247b34bca6122358778ffd9b6a635abbebc7df136f6468af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $491,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $492,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $491,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 52c | 398,203$206,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191,274.68 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 49c | 252,006$122,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122,353.71 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 48c | 128,630$61,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,742.36 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…ddf4backed Over | 48c | 70,000$33,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,449.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 48c | 33,000$15,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,990 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 20,899$10,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,031.52 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 15,000$7,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,250 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 52c | 11,088$5,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,806.19 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…4961backed Under | 53c | 7,333$3,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,919.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 53c | 6,420$3,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,402.6 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Under | 54c | 2,047$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.46 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 49c | 1,405$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.43 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,300$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 54c | 1,029$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.66 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99e0…5052backed Under | 48c | 914.1$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.77 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 51c | 899.99$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.99 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Under | 49c | 699.98$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 52c | 687.12$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.59 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 639.56$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.73 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 49c | 633$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.17 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 42c | 577.62$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.72 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 574.64$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.84 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 53c | 555.09$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.2 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Under | 52c | 413.46$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 45c | 207.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.32 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Under | 67c | 147$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 52c | 145$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 152 | 57.9%88 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 52c | 138$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 135.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 128.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under | 48c | 108.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 48c | 106.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…8616backed Under | 49c | 106.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 173 | 43.4%75 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…f50fbacked Over | 52c | 96.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 89.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 48c | 78.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…1052backed Over | 53c | 74.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Over | 51c | 72.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 42c | 68.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…364dbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 57c | 51.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…811dbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…12eebacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…9337backed Over | 51c | 48.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Under | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 56c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 52c | 40.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…f2fcbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Over | 52c | 38.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0158…75a5backed Over | 52c | 38.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 51c | 29.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485b…fc40backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 28.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 27.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0d…7822backed Over | 52c | 26.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee87…28edbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked Under | 52c | 21.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 51c | 20.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…8055backed Under | 54c | 20.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.