NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9489cb686c5885d6dcbed627831683cfb9dd0e642b29872b9ff3ac9fb6d6d6f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Flyers | 68c | 398.53$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Capitals | 32c | 369.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.36 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Flyers | 38c | 299.8$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Capitals | 31c | 196$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.24 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…6cecbacked Capitals | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Capitals | 31c | 144.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Capitals | 34c | 130.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe47…a4b1backed Capitals | 62c | 130.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flyers | 69c | 113.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Capitals | 31c | 83.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Capitals | 30c | 73.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Flyers | 33c | 72.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flyers | 70c | 71.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Flyers | 66c | 68.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Flyers | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Flyers | 67c | 59.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Capitals | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flyers | 69c | 49.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Flyers | 70c | 48.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Capitals | 58c | 44.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flyers | 69c | 39.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Capitals | 32c | 37.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Capitals | 50c | 33.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Flyers | 57c | 33.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Capitals | 32c | 31.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Capitals | 77c | 31.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Flyers | 69c | 30.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Capitals | 72c | 30.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flyers | 69c | 29.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed Flyers | 69c | 28.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Flyers | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Flyers | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Capitals | 44c | 27.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed Flyers | 69c | 20.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Flyers | 69c | 20.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Flyers | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.