TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,475,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,475,696 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9cb9…32f2backed No45c252,649$113,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139,295.53429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed Yes64c195,000$123,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,849.976453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Yes63c125,000$78,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,499.98560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes37c86,681$31,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,803.5675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes63c79,578$50,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,216.8133945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No63c62,268$39,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,766.33,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No71c61,105$43,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,877.046051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No37c55,650$20,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,059.52740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No36c47,794$17,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,418.014228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No36c40,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,6002222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5cd3…493fbacked Yes64c39,063$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cc6…9df6backed Yes65c38,101$24,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,640.241526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No36c38,045$13,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,348.563333.3%11 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes64c36,551$23,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,392.647345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No37c35,648$13,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,378.74740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e9…390ebacked Yes40c33,053$13,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,167.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked No37c30,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,899.94757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+44.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No37c28,000$10,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,6403154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Yes42c26,491$11,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,195.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No38c19,191$7,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,914.4217251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No38c19,160$7,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,970.7169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e1…f9a8backed Yes12c17,109$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No37c16,217$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,216.614341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2809…b26abacked No36c14,475$5,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,239.85850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No37c13,574$5,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,551.3816652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed No37c13,527$5,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,521.5912064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes39c11,647$4,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,521.3233737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Yes49c11,112$5,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,444.352425%6 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-49.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No37c10,785$3,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,795.7876234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No37c9,889$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,229.472218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No37c9,863$3,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,236.421,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes6c9,860$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.3714315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9707…1861backed No37c9,289$3,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,836.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Yes63c9,286$5,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8504264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed No37c9,140$3,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,758.161421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No37c9,000$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6704540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ec0…7221backed Yes64c8,807$5,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,636.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6431…ab69backed Yes62c8,369$5,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,188.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed No38c8,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9604650%23 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a1…b6babacked Yes63c7,922$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed No37c7,850$2,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,945.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked No37c7,640$2,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,813.141747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3355…14e0backed No36c7,377$2,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,721.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick43cpaid+140.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed No36c7,179$2,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,594.582759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa313…1f26backed Yes18c6,926$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2551926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No37c6,282$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,967.3556547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed No36c6,240$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,993.592035%7 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3a8…06d9backed No36c6,240$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,993.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+76.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No39c6,003$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,631.575923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No36c5,764$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,689.2438748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked No36c5,750$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,679.837057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes28c5,601$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.4749143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe316…c49fbacked No80c5,487$4,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e7…0365backed Yes63c5,438$3,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,425.911729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-56%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf032…ad8cbacked No36c5,418$1,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,491.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked No58c5,196$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.6511762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc776…1e92backed No36c4,789$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,065.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe12c…e7c7backed Yes64c4,643$2,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,971.59425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Yes11c4,545$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b93…e941backed No37c4,498$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.821163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes45c4,479$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No77c4,188$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.752,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes63c4,170$2,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,627.083141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No68c4,162$2,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.5353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Yes15c4,016$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.582556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No37c4,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.972948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe998…b7f0backed No36c3,912$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,503.72540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0457…4403backed Yes52c3,847$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc357…3684backed Yes32c3,769$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes20c3,543$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.4916060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1df…16c1backed Yes10c3,465$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.532245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No38c3,458$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.2662452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed No36c3,333$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.124351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked No37c3,329$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,097.513452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes63c3,271$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.617549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No73c3,192$2,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.7178248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked No37c3,160$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.782441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked No36c3,140$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+58.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92011354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Yes37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1103246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.833244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200d…f117backed Yes27c2,988$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes6c2,985$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.126762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No70c2,983$2,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.531,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a6…5270backed No36c2,826$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4fa…f25ebacked Yes25c2,796$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f6…eab4backed Yes29c2,727$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.262040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbca…9863backed Yes11c2,700$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked No37c2,579$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.611947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Yes11c2,545$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes56c2,520$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42224050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes35c2,500$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.4424132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc88b…af8bbacked No37c2,385$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.55933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed Yes42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9449…c4cfbacked Yes40c2,377$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Yes25c2,366$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.361233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed No36c2,365$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.391428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0724…9091backed No37c2,359$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.12922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7223…5ffabacked Yes63c2,331$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.