TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$301,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,683 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed No74c33,120$24,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,627.575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes23c20,107$4,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,441.16580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+154.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No74c7,759$5,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,732.663,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No80c7,196$5,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,756.761,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes50c7,122$3,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,542.33540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes48c7,087$3,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,702.971,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x702b…dedebacked Yes20c5,940$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7522142.9%9 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+68.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No65c5,289$3,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,452.9553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No80c5,142$4,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,113.669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3111backed Yes26c5,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,700966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+57.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x203d…2b2cbacked Yes23c4,348$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,347.83650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea5…b5e6backed Yes24c4,167$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,166.676100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+101.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa313…1f26backed Yes22c3,882$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,021.221926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No49c3,762$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.632,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No17c3,000$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.85623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No70c2,844$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.2649143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc1b…62c9backed Yes20c2,720$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,176633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+75.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Yes45c2,710$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc4…803dbacked Yes20c2,600$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0801233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe427…c02bbacked Yes20c2,550$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0401127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Yes20c2,500$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No46c2,110$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.7716060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Yes24c2,083$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.332931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked No80c2,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6005655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe726…4c87backed Yes20c2,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6001717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No12c1,901$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.3314315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3708…cebebacked Yes22c1,893$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Yes47c1,878$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.122425%6 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-49.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe970…d76abacked Yes61c1,650$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.39366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes20c1,570$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2563834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No80c1,499$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.1562452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…b673backed Yes25c1,348$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+304%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No80c1,239$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.363645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes17c1,174$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.519646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa455…3ef0backed Yes46c1,085$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61b…e7babacked Yes75c1,084$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.58560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No49c1,071$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.21,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93d…fc9bbacked Yes53c1,023$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Yes73c1,009$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.0313139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No80c1,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80048146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes28c999.99$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.5244655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef88…29a3backed No73c950.43$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.83262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0df…8f41backed No80c939$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.26167.2%41 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1080…142abacked Yes22c910.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.47520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…b48fbacked Yes26c885.49$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+64.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes23c869.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.5726433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0632…d1b7backed Yes29c862.19$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.191163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+52.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes19c810.89$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.823438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No80c797.7$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.1616652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No80c775.5$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.438748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80b4…a52ebacked No43c695.35$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed5d…2668backed Yes24c634.06$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.063354.5%18 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa2c1…e445backed Yes65c625.61$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes20c620$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Yes20c600$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4806129.5%18 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes72c591.5$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.55944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes27c584.13$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.957532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No74c560.74$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.1322332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x575b…1825backed No77c554$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc55…afe5backed Yes23c554$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c31…23cbbacked Yes57c507.62$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9725backed Yes23c500$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+117.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Yes24c483$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.082962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3b…b190backed Yes64c468.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+50.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa10e…4ea1backed Yes22c455.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.451330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes22c454.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.557646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b90…30b6backed Yes24c416.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.675250%26 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No72c403.26$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.078541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2247057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca38…720fbacked Yes27c400$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Yes25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf04…69b8backed Yes72c391.01$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…c249backed Yes55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25cd…6234backed Yes20c356.12$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+242.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes20c350.09$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.423342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+90.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed No30c339.97$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.695446.3%25 W · 29 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x545a…bff5backed Yes21c338.55$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+371.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4f…ccbbbacked Yes21c318.86$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.86560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+54.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Yes60c304$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.612832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3541…78debacked No66c303$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.981090%9 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick63cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes20c301.2$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.213129.8%39 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Yes58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1263773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9101…78ddbacked Yes41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes53c298.67$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.1923842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf87c…da0cbacked No34c291.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes52c289.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.461560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No77c287.68$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.2978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x315d…b420backed Yes34c277.39$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.69757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2f…c5d0backed No55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502050%10 W · 10 L-4.7wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb48e…d489backed Yes22c254.45$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe477…4befbacked No20c254.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15cc…6268backed Yes16c252.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+127.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1090…3ad3backed Yes54c246.41$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7577…8fb9backed Yes21c238.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.11050%5 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+164.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Yes24c236.54$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.771020%2 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa399…b304backed Yes54c234.31$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.31757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1019…1f27backed Yes54c231.35$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3740…a935backed Yes74c228.57$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.03560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb8a…9806backed Yes73c227.99$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.96650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No42c225.56$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9224541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.