Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e641da29f1837241b1d8370db7acbdae3e4fb0952f75e8f71688915e0746ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $530,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,864 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 41c | 55,671$22,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,904.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 55c | 28,217$15,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,769.08 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ce…ed13backed No | 72c | 26,556$19,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,435.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed No | 60c | 25,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed Yes | 24c | 19,358$4,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,625.15 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…390ebacked Yes | 73c | 16,753$12,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,205.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 17c | 13,210$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,227.9 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 9,189$6,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,297.64 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 35c | 7,857$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745.44 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes | 34c | 7,500$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 37c | 7,022$2,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,448.33 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 16c | 6,661$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.76 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb388…1496backed Yes | 21c | 5,545$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e7…0365backed Yes | 17c | 5,438$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.44 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -56%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 41c | 5,254$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.5 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 65c | 4,728$3,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.57 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 34c | 4,440$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 36c | 4,353$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.22 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes | 17c | 4,179$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.46 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 16c | 4,147$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.5 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 3,445$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.69 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 80c | 3,373$2,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.6 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…b5e6backed No | 66c | 3,332$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Yes | 17c | 3,080$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.65 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked No | 65c | 3,051$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.14 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9707…1861backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 77c | 2,840$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 68c | 2,824$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…b4cebacked Yes | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…c49fbacked Yes | 69c | 2,185$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 20c | 1,588$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,525$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.47 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,323$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.14 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 78c | 1,277$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.47 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked No | 33c | 1,256$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.52 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 49c | 1,231$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,218$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.97 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 45c | 1,213$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.66 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 18c | 1,200$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 31c | 1,155$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.97 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 1,082$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.11 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 38c | 1,029$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.73 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…e759backed No | 33c | 1,009$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Yes | 30c | 1,001$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.32 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Yes | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 16c | 999.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed No | 12c | 926.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.06 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 879.15$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.38 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked No | 58c | 865.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed No | 68c | 855.88$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.88 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 12c | 837.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 36c | 836.35$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.77 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked No | 50c | 814.32$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.24 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cb…5f9fbacked Yes | 66c | 757.95$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…c41cbacked No | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Yes | 22c | 736.95$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Yes | 17c | 701.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 30c | 680.2$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…f3f0backed Yes | 76c | 668.57$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 37c | 668.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55e…19c7backed No | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 19c | 659.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Yes | 58c | 646.9$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.37 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 17c | 620$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Yes | 69c | 608.7$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 66c | 603.96$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.45 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 20c | 602.67$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 16c | 601.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0592…49aabacked No | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 68c | 588.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 58c | 574.38$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.21 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked No | 67c | 562$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.26 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 34c | 561.32$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.7 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…066dbacked Yes | 58c | 546.65$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 46c | 530$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.82 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…8a29backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Yes | 33c | 499.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 18c | 495.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x065b…547fbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…67ebbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked Yes | 49c | 466.64$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…c640backed No | 31c | 460$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed No | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 75c | 441$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.13 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 24c | 424.88$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 71c | 420.34$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 20c | 417.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 53c | 399.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 391.37$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.92 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e6…cbd8backed Yes | 18c | 379.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.