TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$530,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,864 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Yes41c55,671$22,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,904.63,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No55c28,217$15,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,769.0875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ce…ed13backed No72c26,556$19,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,435.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed No60c25,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0003357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Yes24c19,358$4,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,625.154938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30e9…390ebacked Yes73c16,753$12,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,205.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes17c13,210$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,227.969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No75c9,189$6,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.641,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes35c7,857$2,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,745.4411762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes34c7,500$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No37c7,022$2,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,448.3353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes16c6,661$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.7634144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb388…1496backed Yes21c5,545$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e7…0365backed Yes17c5,438$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.441729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-56%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes41c5,254$2,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.51,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No65c4,728$3,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.5713139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Yes34c4,440$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes36c4,353$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.229646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes17c4,179$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.463141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes16c4,147$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No58c3,445$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.6933737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No80c3,373$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.648658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1ea5…b5e6backed No66c3,332$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.66100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+101.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Yes17c3,080$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.652040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d8…31cfbacked No65c3,051$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.142166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes16c3,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4903438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9707…1861backed Yes19c3,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes77c2,840$2,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes68c2,824$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,926.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Yes18c2,778$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe316…c49fbacked Yes69c2,185$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No31c2,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3801275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Yes20c1,588$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.52321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes17c1,525$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.4734342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Yes34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes18c1,323$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.1417251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes78c1,277$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.4755058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked No33c1,256$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.525046%23 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes49c1,231$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes25c1,218$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.977532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes45c1,213$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.6630647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes18c1,200$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21616343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes31c1,155$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.9710641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No68c1,082$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.1178248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed Yes38c1,029$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.735964.4%38 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ad…e759backed No33c1,009$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.091172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+32.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Yes30c1,001$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.11428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+63.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes16c1,000$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3244655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Yes35c999.99$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes16c999.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16548146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed No12c926.58$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.065455.6%30 W · 24 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No42c879.15$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.3822221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked No58c865.55$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.55757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed No68c855.88$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.889100%9 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes12c837.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes36c836.35$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.773342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+90.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d39…a4fbbacked No50c814.32$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.242864.3%18 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+55.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf9cb…5f9fbacked Yes66c757.95$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28b7…c41cbacked No67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fdc…2234backed Yes22c736.95$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.881457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+35.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Yes68c735.29$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed Yes17c701.72$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.452227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed Yes30c680.2$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Yes76c668.57$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.921233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Yes37c668.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc55e…19c7backed No30c666.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x258f…4493backed Yes19c659.16$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.247424.3%18 W · 56 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Yes58c646.9$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.372755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes17c620$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Yes69c608.7$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No66c603.96$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.4523842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Yes20c602.67$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.691741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+73.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes16c601.01$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1763645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0592…49aabacked No54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked No68c588.24$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.2438055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No58c574.38$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.2124541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked No67c562$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.262975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Yes34c561.32$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.76030%18 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf66…066dbacked Yes58c546.65$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No46c530$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.8222332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4db9…14f5backed Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x127f…8a29backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553520%7 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Yes33c499.98$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes18c495.46$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5416060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x065b…547fbacked Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf27…67ebbacked Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc7c…958ebacked Yes49c466.64$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.43020%6 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5440…c640backed No31c460$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+49.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed No68c441.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes75c441$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.1322669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes24c424.88$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.68932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24de…83cbbacked No71c420.34$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes20c417.34$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.475326.4%14 W · 39 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-54.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed No31c400$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf693…995ebacked No53c399.99$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1863847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+40.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No63c391.37$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.922,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e6…cbd8backed Yes18c379.26$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.27850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.