TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,656
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,656 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x08c5…43edbacked No74c22,052$16,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,733.574854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes26c15,767$4,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,104.8675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No74c5,717$4,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.424740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No75c4,875$3,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.6411354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes29c4,289$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.753,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes26c4,194$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.367935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes25c3,087$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.521,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Yes33c2,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.87922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Yes26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed No74c1,629$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.517950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No79c1,547$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.181,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes26c1,500$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes26c1,200$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3125425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No78c1,120$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.231,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes26c1,112$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.9756951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked No74c1,111$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.862665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes24c1,080$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.225928.8%17 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12013129.8%39 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No74c771.03$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.473145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No74c755.4$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.7769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1353…c7fdbacked No59c659.32$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cf…d1e7backed Yes36c638.84$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed No74c617$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.421464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10224132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes26c576.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No74c511.23$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1306256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Yes27c500$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.476344.4%28 W · 35 L+9.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes3c490$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.722332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No74c400$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10463645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed No74c399.98$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1049549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf438…de5dbacked Yes26c369.15$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.981942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+126.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes36c350.26$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4619458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x250b…9cb5backed Yes30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+190.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7816045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7819446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked No46c278.26$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.262470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes16c260$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.65020%10 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-54.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.632250%11 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x522f…79c2backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Yes9c160.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.242458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d8a…4d5fbacked No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851070%7 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No74c135.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1337344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No69c134.76$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2723842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No74c132$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3230054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205215.4%8 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x388b…25ddbacked Yes19c117.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.811833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-44.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x766c…fd5bbacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3038845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed Yes26c89.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.110258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes49c86.04$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a4…9bbebacked Yes27c84.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No63c82$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.358541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1b…4b36backed No65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.92475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked No74c75.59$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.510051%51 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Yes27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.258243.9%36 W · 46 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a33…237dbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e91…ffdfbacked Yes26c73.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed No75c66.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.668950.6%45 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes26c65.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1718140.3%73 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Yes26c64.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7521051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed No60c59.52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.523658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+58.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yes25c59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9639857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed No61c57.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.13234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135076%38 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7521450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1814934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7525855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.833959%23 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Yes25c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…33d5backed Yes26c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4810262.7%64 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Yes26c43.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa081…b4fbbacked Yes59c42.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2712165.3%79 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc871…2f76backed Yes55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed No71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171850%9 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked No47c27.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.862055%11 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bbe…03c5backed No75c26.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed No75c26.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb15…f4f8backed Yes62c25.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed9…bbd3backed No68c23.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da1…26a7backed No75c21.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.561258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x449e…4f8ebacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2860…604dbacked No75c14.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked No74c13.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.523333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51aa…10dabacked No75c13.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.373100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.