UFC · resolved market
UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb860ca812f8c6b6e7f664ae12ec0531e9befa3a0f828f387a0728cab7c84ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x921a…ee8dbacked Yes | 14c | 4,268$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.08 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Yes | 14c | 2,521$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…5e0cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,440$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,432$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes | 14c | 1,255$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…99a8backed Yes | 14c | 1,173$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…f844backed Yes | 14c | 1,143$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…4a96backed Yes | 14c | 1,121$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 12c | 999.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…90ddbacked Yes | 14c | 845.79$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes | 13c | 761.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…f90fbacked Yes | 14c | 587.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…5948backed Yes | 15c | 506.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 11c | 465.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd75…02f9backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 370.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef7…81b8backed Yes | 14c | 367.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 13c | 358.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 321.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…7547backed Yes | 13c | 311.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…3579backed Yes | 13c | 297.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 11c | 269.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…d1b8backed Yes | 13c | 256.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…54d0backed Yes | 14c | 237.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64b…b90fbacked Yes | 12c | 231.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…ad93backed Yes | 13c | 223.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf0…65dbbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…7f87backed Yes | 13c | 184.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536a…7de2backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…6b2ebacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdc…7044backed Yes | 14c | 160.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…c40fbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7c64backed Yes | 13c | 148.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…4aabbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…3956backed Yes | 13c | 121.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac9…a742backed Yes | 13c | 118.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8f…3ad8backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 12c | 97.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…d100backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…c2f0backed Yes | 15c | 83.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…e3abbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by decision? this page
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by decision?Yes won
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev be decided any other way?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev end in a draw?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.