UFC · resolved market
UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by KO/TKO/DQ?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4758cdbb846f20a948804a2383542fee3ceaf01d2ba31206766be5b7c861dfce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Yes | 20c | 5,050$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Yes | 19c | 3,182$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.06 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…b34ebacked Yes | 22c | 2,259$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…2f7ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,186$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 14c | 896.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.46 | 281 | 43.1%121 W · 160 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked No | 80c | 674.95$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 17c | 613.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…46d4backed Yes | 17c | 588.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…1056backed Yes | 19c | 567.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…6eb5backed Yes | 18c | 547.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 17c | 444.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…b97abacked Yes | 18c | 401.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9246…2736backed Yes | 19c | 394.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 18c | 320$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Yes | 19c | 277.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536a…7de2backed Yes | 18c | 216.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 19c | 213.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…c40fbacked Yes | 19c | 205.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…4dc3backed Yes | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…69a8backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…1147backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 15c | 112.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4830…5b56backed Yes | 18c | 110.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…fd46backed Yes | 20c | 100.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 91.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 89.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 19c | 53.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…cf40backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by KO/TKO/DQ?this page
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by decision?Yes won
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev be decided any other way?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev end in a draw?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by decision? No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.