UFC · resolved market
UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by KO/TKO/DQ?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcb8c79ccace3d40747c0f9208887929532245b82fcdf6d948c9167e61cc6c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe15d…9507backed Yes | 14c | 3,461$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…8f5ebacked Yes | 16c | 3,185$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yes | 15c | 3,100$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.55 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…5e0cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,511$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Yes | 17c | 2,345$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 15c | 2,063$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.82 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…2888backed Yes | 18c | 1,130$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Yes | 14c | 900.62$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes | 15c | 826.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 16c | 783.13$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…b34ebacked Yes | 14c | 709.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes | 16c | 638.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb312…382ebacked Yes | 15c | 615.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…4a96backed Yes | 15c | 591.69$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Yes | 13c | 562.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 78c | 545$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.25 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…645bbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…63a4backed Yes | 20c | 439.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…5948backed Yes | 16c | 437.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…d1b8backed Yes | 14c | 315.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…8a4abacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f9…eb40backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c6…c9f9backed Yes | 16c | 281.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…e16cbacked Yes | 15c | 273.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 14c | 264.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 14c | 263.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed Yes | 18c | 262.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…21d2backed Yes | 15c | 258.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…f860backed Yes | 14c | 219.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 215.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2826…ef11backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ae…9743backed Yes | 15c | 191.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…316cbacked Yes | 14c | 185.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…24adbacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…1395backed Yes | 15c | 170.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe6…6adebacked Yes | 13c | 169.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79bd…b931backed Yes | 15c | 153.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad1…c130backed Yes | 13c | 152.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff54…ccf0backed Yes | 14c | 140.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…ad3bbacked Yes | 16c | 138.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…c40fbacked Yes | 14c | 138.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…ee8dbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 15c | 133.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7c64backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…b1b8backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…0299backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3064…0b0ebacked Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac9…a742backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3930…13b0backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…fea7backed Yes | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…47fbbacked Yes | 11c | 93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9563backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…c2f0backed Yes | 16c | 78.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…a8e3backed Yes | 14c | 72.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…8812backed Yes | 15c | 64.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…2f2abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…1147backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc039…e2e0backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…d3b7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by KO/TKO/DQ?this page
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by decision?Yes won
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev be decided any other way?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev end in a draw?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by decision? No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.