UFC · resolved market
UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbee51b04288760201f8e042b351462fe53580875e7a69fc100728b2773155ee4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Yes | 9c | 5,518$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.52 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 9c | 5,135$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.8 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…304fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,706$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…5948backed Yes | 8c | 1,182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…2888backed Yes | 10c | 1,003$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Yes | 7c | 799.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…c416backed Yes | 7c | 785.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…f6f9backed Yes | 9c | 749.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…9bd0backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 7c | 525$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…21d2backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ae…9743backed Yes | 9c | 290.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 6c | 280.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…c40fbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…d1b8backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 7c | 208.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9563backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…d3b7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by submission?this page
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by decision?Yes won
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev be decided any other way?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev end in a draw?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by decision? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.