UFC · resolved market
UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22d4ba1daf6053a24a1263e94bac18263063739b3056259e9ec8f496f536a041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed No | 64c | 7,122$4,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,566.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked No | 58c | 6,235$3,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,637.09 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 36c | 3,421$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.93 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Yes | 36c | 3,111$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.96 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…d473backed Yes | 45c | 3,059$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4142…adfabacked Yes | 40c | 2,529$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ade…bb46backed Yes | 40c | 2,508$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 38c | 2,000$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…5e0cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,929$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e6…2da0backed Yes | 40c | 1,350$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Yes | 40c | 1,329$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…5295backed Yes | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 63c | 999.99$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 60c | 989.97$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.55 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 63c | 961.09$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.21 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f96…56c1backed Yes | 40c | 885.03$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…69a8backed Yes | 41c | 881.56$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 41c | 836$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.74 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…aac2backed No | 63c | 808.51$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Yes | 38c | 790$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 684.42$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.35 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed No | 62c | 633.24$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.63 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Yes | 38c | 607.16$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.37 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed Yes | 37c | 604.87$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebd4…4bfcbacked Yes | 38c | 599.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fa…6eaebacked Yes | 41c | 538.03$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…5068backed Yes | 40c | 516.68$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…c4cbbacked Yes | 37c | 464.86$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…1db2backed Yes | 40c | 451.7$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Yes | 37c | 430$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 61c | 409.47$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x536a…7de2backed Yes | 41c | 405.9$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b6…6717backed Yes | 40c | 403.63$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…7f87backed Yes | 40c | 390.93$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…2411backed Yes | 43c | 381.5$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 61c | 363.4$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 60c | 356.1$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.32 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…2f7ebacked No | 61c | 347.5$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Yes | 43c | 339.53$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 62c | 333.61$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…63c8backed No | 58c | 319.98$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.59 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 40c | 307.65$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.06 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…ee8dbacked Yes | 40c | 283.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 39c | 275$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ee…1638backed Yes | 39c | 273.34$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8404…8c08backed Yes | 37c | 270.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978c…7e69backed Yes | 39c | 261.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…5616backed Yes | 39c | 256.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…2a89backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…79c7backed Yes | 40c | 250.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…f4f1backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…af7abacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Yes | 42c | 231.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc039…e2e0backed Yes | 44c | 226.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c0…a417backed Yes | 40c | 223.9$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed No | 60c | 219.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 61c | 199.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed Yes | 44c | 185.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…6b2ebacked Yes | 41c | 183.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 179.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9246…2736backed Yes | 42c | 166.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9b…2227backed Yes | 42c | 165.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7c…e500backed Yes | 40c | 161.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bd…c69cbacked Yes | 40c | 152.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…b97abacked Yes | 38c | 144.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 57c | 134$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 38c | 130.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…b15ebacked Yes | 43c | 127.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 58cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…6d9ebacked Yes | 39c | 126.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…9bd0backed Yes | 40c | 124$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…55debacked Yes | 41c | 122.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…9781backed Yes | 38c | 121.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…edd0backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…94e7backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…21d2backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf0…65dbbacked Yes | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…3a7dbacked Yes | 44c | 105.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…f21bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13be…80fbbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edf…480ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…856ebacked No | 62c | 97.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…c6bfbacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…0bd7backed Yes | 43c | 93.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715f…a096backed Yes | 39c | 89.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 62c | 89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ec…b90ebacked Yes | 44c | 88.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c1…8d10backed Yes | 45c | 86.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…c689backed Yes | 38c | 84.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Yes | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 38c | 75.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc420…be7abacked Yes | 40c | 75.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission?this page
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by decision?Yes won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev be decided any other way?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev end in a draw?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by decision? No won
- UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.