UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Orolbai (Welterweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeb364aa6a98822a6fdb0b35f25d59e8fe23848cae4a0e2d0c816151353952c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Orolbaiof Hermansson, Orolbai
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $437,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $500,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 288 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Orolbai | 65c | 75,675$49,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,486.15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Hermansson | 35c | 66,517$23,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,281.04 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Hermansson | 35c | 64,873$22,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,609.72 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…7a5fbacked Orolbai | 65c | 57,088$37,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,088.1 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Hermansson | 36c | 42,197$15,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,158.88 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Orolbai | 64c | 40,000$25,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,400 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Hermansson | 36c | 32,689$11,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,768.21 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Hermansson | 35c | 30,000$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,499.99 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Hermansson | 36c | 21,203$7,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,633.2 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Hermansson | 35c | 20,039$6,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,995.49 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…f2c3backed Orolbai | 65c | 20,000$13,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,000 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Orolbai | 64c | 18,889$12,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,765.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Orolbai | 64c | 16,458$10,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,989.44 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Orolbai | 76c | 14,412$10,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,459.9 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Hermansson | 35c | 12,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…f95bbacked Hermansson | 36c | 10,622$3,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,824 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Orolbai | 64c | 10,080$6,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,628.79 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Hermansson | 36c | 6,717$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.25 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x596e…7b82backed Orolbai | 64c | 6,654$4,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Orolbai | 64c | 6,300$4,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,287.99 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Orolbai | 64c | 5,469$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.75 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Orolbai | 64c | 5,194$3,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.8 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…719bbacked Hermansson | 36c | 5,139$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Orolbai | 64c | 4,969$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Orolbai | 65c | 4,700$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…4229backed Orolbai | 65c | 4,615$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Orolbai | 65c | 4,147$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.15 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Hermansson | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hermansson | 35c | 4,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.98 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Orolbai | 65c | 3,786$2,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Orolbai | 65c | 3,077$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.09 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…68e1backed Orolbai | 65c | 3,077$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a3…911ebacked Orolbai | 65c | 2,746$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.81 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Hermansson | 36c | 2,597$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.07 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hermansson | 36c | 2,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Hermansson | 36c | 2,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Orolbai | 65c | 2,308$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.69 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Hermansson | 36c | 2,165$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.28 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Orolbai | 65c | 2,148$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.02 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hermansson | 37c | 2,055$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.76 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Hermansson | 37c | 2,041$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.51 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Hermansson | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Orolbai | 63c | 1,576$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.56 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Orolbai | 63c | 1,573$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Hermansson | 36c | 1,515$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.27 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Orolbai | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.1 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Orolbai | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Orolbai | 65c | 1,412$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Hermansson | 35c | 1,390$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.4 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Orolbai | 64c | 1,388$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed Hermansson | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ba…bbb6backed Orolbai | 69c | 1,302$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.71 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Hermansson | 36c | 1,200$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Hermansson | 33c | 1,141$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.02 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Hermansson | 34c | 1,136$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.3 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1f…5cddbacked Hermansson | 36c | 1,098$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Orolbai | 63c | 1,070$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.93 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…abe8backed Hermansson | 36c | 1,059$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.13 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Orolbai | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Orolbai | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Orolbai | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Orolbai | 65c | 1,000$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.5 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Orolbai | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Orolbai | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Orolbai | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Hermansson | 34c | 969.16$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.2 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked Hermansson | 37c | 968.49$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.34 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -10.5wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Hermansson | 37c | 964.5$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.63 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x915d…65f9backed Orolbai | 64c | 940$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.4 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5341…2b42backed Orolbai | 65c | 923.08$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Orolbai | 65c | 888$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7811…6e14backed Orolbai | 63c | 793$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.41 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Orolbai | 64c | 781.06$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.18 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…90ddbacked Orolbai | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…50d6backed Orolbai | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Orolbai | 64c | 748.84$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.58 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Hermansson | 35c | 713.34$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hermansson | 34c | 703.37$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.15 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Hermansson | 31c | 666.32$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.56 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Hermansson | 37c | 620.37$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Orolbai | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…39b1backed Orolbai | 65c | 601.9$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Orolbai | 64c | 597.55$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.12 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Hermansson | 35c | 570.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…202fbacked Hermansson | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Orolbai | 68c | 550$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Hermansson | 2c | 540$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Orolbai | 65c | 538.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Hermansson | 32c | 537.94$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a6…f8aebacked Hermansson | 3c | 515.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Orolbai | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Orolbai | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Hermansson | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Hermansson | 36c | 491.69$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Orolbai | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Orolbai | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Hermansson | 37c | 436.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Orolbai | 65c | 407.69$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.69 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Orolbai | 65c | 384.62$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Orolbai | 64c | 354.69$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Orolbai (Welterweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Jack Hermansson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Myktybek Orolbai win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.