UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fa1d8f10c2a72e4a660e13d96453ddfccbb36eb6930d9f2344e10c54aeb1c09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked No | 72c | 699.11$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.11 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 47c | 411.51$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.41 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed No | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 15c | 342.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…24cbbacked Yes | 47c | 227.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 48c | 201.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e1…f41dbacked Yes | 46c | 156.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 36c | 59.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…8b9ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 56c | 21.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Orolbai (Welterweight, Main Card)Orolbai won
- Will Jack Hermansson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Myktybek Orolbai win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.