TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$284,043
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$278,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,043 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 306 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32b6…8863backed No0c29,514$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c2…29ebbacked No14c11,053$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.7837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+132.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes40c8,403$3,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,080.2310045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No2c8,195$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3514732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x34ab…840ebacked Yes20c8,105$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,483.712475%18 W · 6 L+7.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+82.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7d8a…9fb8backed Yes44c7,255$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,075.284100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+64.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes38c6,670$2,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,127.792740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c6,190$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.147663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed No63c5,333$3,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,340.219046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa55e…c136backed No79c4,309$3,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,407.931346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6903…b6f9backed No15c3,686$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.121330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No57c3,446$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,951.6617859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6da…46e4backed No75c3,350$2,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,512.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No30c3,000$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9122450%12 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked No4c2,923$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6811421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24c9…d693backed No12c2,869$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.6670%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes61c2,778$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.561650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed No73c2,516$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.746934.8%24 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c2,250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-80.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa1d1…3a7abacked No42c2,232$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9321625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-62%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7950…1d42backed Yes22c2,099$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.21353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f61…011abacked Yes25c1,984$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.21966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa38a…57d3backed Yes36c1,973$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.631070%7 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick42cpaid+39.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes34c1,965$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.734047.5%19 W · 21 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No55c1,894$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.437234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea07…d8b7backed No9c1,855$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.783627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd202…55e1backed No32c1,742$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.97560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No66c1,691$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.864463.6%28 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+40.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba94…d855backed No8c1,690$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.922536%9 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d0…46f6backed No61c1,643$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.492339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd297…2919backed No70c1,640$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.939550.5%48 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed No61c1,633$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+325.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5238…26adbacked No4c1,609$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.44210%0 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8904…80a3backed No50c1,600$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8005650%28 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce61…8ef6backed Yes26c1,600$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1843823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b78…2cd6backed Yes50c1,576$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.51540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4827…6bb1backed No72c1,520$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick62cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No65c1,500$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.8315362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No5c1,500$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.222094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Yes43c1,459$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…fb8fbacked No14c1,288$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1862941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…4723backed No79c1,270$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.98154.3%44 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74d7…6beabacked No1c1,255$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.031717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5858…fbbfbacked No57c1,211$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6933243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No6c1,149$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.51728.3%6 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-69.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c1,125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked No57c1,103$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.566940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No5c1,043$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.374721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f4d…5ec7backed Yes45c1,032$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.411127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick15cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed Yes40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6003215.6%5 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-58%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked No78c1,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes16c1,000$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84013131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf82c…0f6fbacked No31c999.99$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3102250%11 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No40c999.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefc3…081fbacked Yes22c999.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.993636.1%13 W · 23 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+72.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No75c999.99$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.9915941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23d…f322backed No38c999.97$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.992060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00b6…6c5cbacked Yes47c966.34$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No4c957.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.56773.9%3 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a5…bb7ebacked Yes23c915$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.552326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df7…c90dbacked Yes23c907.89$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.071926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dba…bf85backed No35c899.98$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02e4…f0aebacked No75c867.77$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.482142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5615…df5ebacked Yes21c848.84$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.59742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1340…e38bbacked No62c808.94$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked No25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003420.6%7 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-58.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3063…dbb1backed Yes42c799.99$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+67.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No3c794.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.551122.7%3 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8434…55fcbacked No58c778.11$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.961353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abe…6c5ebacked Yes32c725.46$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.461020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed No5c725$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3611225.9%29 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed Yes44c702$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.611643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5017…4daebacked No6c696.17$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ca4…923dbacked No31c651.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006245.2%28 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No52c650.78$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.3115637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked No64c649.99$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.491540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ff…997fbacked Yes57c645.04$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.043528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0107…bb52backed Yes52c623.57$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No4c608.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.16452.2%1 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes52c599.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.9916740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Yes42c595.24$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.244959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…f992backed No25c587.68$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.925846.6%27 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cf1…ee87backed No33c565.8$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.224318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b60…5c8dbacked Yes27c564.06$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.062020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes65c549.02$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.5510756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7329…d562backed No70c545$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.12937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ab…01cabacked Yes52c526.79$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.484341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Yes30c506.75$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.683265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes42c504.99$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.57334.2%25 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3565…8193backed No80c501.25$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2683…b5bfbacked Yes26c500$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3701618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0995…620dbacked No17c499.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852119%4 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-57.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6252…495dbacked No51c499.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.991838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No18c489$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.225416.7%9 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No34c486.57$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.71618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1bf7…1cb8backed Yes45c472.41$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.411428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-51.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbbe6…c7a1backed Yes46c466.72$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.721752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39a4…0955backed Yes54c463.33$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes44c450$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2527439.2%29 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf8…2522backed No56c446.43$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.