TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$302,470
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$321,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,470 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes80c20,226$16,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,124.522740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No1c19,744$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4413422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No14c10,200$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4442450%12 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No20c7,681$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.197240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No16c5,519$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.3117859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed No0c5,310$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c4,801$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.247663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa553…6236backed No20c4,786$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.151612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-79.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed No13c4,553$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.415712.3%7 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c9…d693backed No1c4,227$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4570%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0049…8c14backed Yes68c3,981$2,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No15c3,339$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.467234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af1…abc0backed No28c3,298$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.52616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No16c2,800$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.0515362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes78c2,600$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.164744.7%21 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf37e…d94cbacked No17c2,525$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.9430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No14c2,522$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.716247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbbe…c192backed No12c2,472$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.933613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked No7c2,153$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.963420.6%7 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-58.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a08…a5aabacked No16c2,112$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf1…ee87backed No19c2,024$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.084318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7622…8f80backed No20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No1c1,746$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4814548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f06…39c7backed No15c1,697$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.271926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf77b…eb5cbacked No15c1,501$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No20c1,430$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2863262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No2c1,375$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27773.9%3 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…f992backed No18c1,111$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.955846.6%27 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked No22c1,077$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.524047.5%19 W · 21 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x776b…7251backed Yes74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2604341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No1c999.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No19c999.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19014141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed No14c962.9$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.327231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked No12c925.86$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.016940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Yes78c920.14$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.431643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e28…3e73backed No16c917.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x369f…7ba3backed No12c857.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No17c854.56$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.22618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77e4…d18fbacked No21c820.46$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.165736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed No13c800$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043215.6%5 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-58%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbf6…5cc2backed No12c799.98$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963616.7%6 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+78.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No3c792.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.671915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-79.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No17c771.05$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.46159%36 W · 25 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+20.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes70c759.49$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8513131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d5f…6fb2backed No13c745.3$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f3a…7dcbbacked No19c739.41$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+62.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No10c736.81$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.617334.2%25 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b1…3e4ebacked No19c690$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7845…51b5backed No9c645$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d2…2ef7backed No12c599.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-70.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked No23c596.31$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.853265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes78c593.83$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7310756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9718…05f6backed No12c573$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb672…456fbacked No22c572.08$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e04…7a00backed No14c571.43$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe058…d73ebacked No18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…8a0abacked No11c535$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x111b…f904backed No23c524$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fe…9ffebacked No17c500$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8515941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea07…d8b7backed No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecd3…4285backed No16c499.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No16c488.72$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.215637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde34…ff56backed No26c469.86$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d06…00d4backed No19c441.77$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.084468.2%30 W · 14 L+12.3wins+0.28per pick40cpaid+70.5%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed No29c410.12$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.747847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbfc…1a11backed No20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801625%4 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x070b…9ca2backed No4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c54…2e80backed No24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93f3…5d04backed No16c386.82$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.553548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+53.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfad3…f2a5backed No17c385.82$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e2…7b4ebacked No15c360$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+37.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x192f…bc4fbacked No8c350$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc744…f6d6backed No15c309.27$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7840%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fc8…bdd5backed No18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0fa…7acebacked No10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x327e…9587backed Yes67c297.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.381136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3565…8193backed No18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7329…d562backed No19c277.45$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.162937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x002f…0737backed No14c274.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No10c260$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263020%6 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed No5c258.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.923036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d3…52b9backed No37c250$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.51010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-81.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa4d…aeafbacked No14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b7…36e8backed No12c249.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+70.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…1e3ebacked No11c245.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.04728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-58.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf8…e39ebacked No35c240.93$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed No7c240$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7339.1%3 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes76c227.41$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0110370.9%73 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eb8…0269backed No23c203.78$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd01f…5499backed No17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed No11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+84.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5669…0f13backed No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed No12c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed No14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2479…99a7backed No31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6250%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3d7…61b8backed No12c199.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233557.1%20 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes71c176.12$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0725422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed No14c176$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-56.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.