Token Launches · resolved market
HumidiFi FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16405788d377032a876bb3266580878ba8506ba1194603e235d6b2f46a4eac6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes | 5c | 5,643$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6903…b6f9backed Yes | 5c | 4,448$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…57d3backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 10c | 1,792$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.27 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,609$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…081fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,504$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…9cd2backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d75…cf0bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,275$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…4e55backed Yes | 2c | 1,247$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,175$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f32…7b50backed Yes | 9c | 1,158$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +198%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…2903backed Yes | 12c | 1,001$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…c90dbacked Yes | 14c | 999.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 925.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…6fb2backed Yes | 7c | 881.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc073…ab63backed Yes | 4c | 790.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 5c | 756.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 7c | 734.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 7c | 649.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 647.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2479…99a7backed Yes | 7c | 580$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…95f0backed Yes | 8c | 562.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 535$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 521.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 7c | 480$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1258…0c15backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c86…10a5backed Yes | 5c | 321.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e3…0a58backed Yes | 5c | 271.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…f49dbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4d…5ec7backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…75bfbacked Yes | 5c | 228.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Yes | 11c | 227.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…8359backed Yes | 5c | 213.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f2…a4cebacked Yes | 5c | 210.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 208$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 7c | 198$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3705…e48ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a8…749fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7440…04d0backed Yes | 12c | 112.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1634backed Yes | 14c | 104.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…2ecdbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- HumidiFi FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- HumidiFi FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- HumidiFi FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- HumidiFi FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
- HumidiFi FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
- HumidiFi FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.