TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc073…ab63

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 50 out of 100 (0.00 per pick) — its least-bad Category, not a recommendation. Every Category this wallet trades grades at or below 50, which is what “no edge at all” looks like.

Best Category Ukraine at 50 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$853Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+118.9%+$1,014.09
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$329.99
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$640
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$217.9
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$234
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$490
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$935Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$934.99
VOOI FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$250
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$168
HumidiFi FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+419.5%+$838.91
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$299.85
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$229.97
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$499.5
Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$373.82
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$630.02
All 22 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500.25
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$150
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$20.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$97.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$573Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$573
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $250 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$224.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$994Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$994.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.