Movies · resolved market
Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd2cda8debc8a7725f5da591a6e66f662cf6481470d883576723efebd14c3697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,343,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $756,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,343,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 1c | 100,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 1c | 84,177$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.21 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 81,039$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.7 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…4b52backed Yes | 0c | 60,500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes | 2c | 55,958$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 1c | 50,250$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.37 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 48,415$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.56 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd2…73c3backed Yes | 2c | 45,247$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441c…429dbacked Yes | 1c | 43,260$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…8c4abacked Yes | 3c | 38,712$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 1c | 38,650$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.39 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 0c | 37,996$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.86 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…ed9bbacked Yes | 1c | 36,314$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 2c | 35,079$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235d…e242backed Yes | 3c | 34,592$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…bbcebacked Yes | 2c | 34,480$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.43 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4821…d1d2backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked Yes | 0c | 29,023$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f7…346fbacked Yes | 1c | 26,157$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 24,579$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.05 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…a1aabacked Yes | 3c | 23,212$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 11cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf358…725dbacked Yes | 1c | 23,000$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…ac27backed Yes | 3c | 22,924$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc125…15fcbacked Yes | 2c | 20,692$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd812…ed32backed Yes | 2c | 20,195$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 3c | 20,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 3c | 20,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…6314backed Yes | 3c | 18,362$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Yes | 2c | 17,872$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.36 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…8fd7backed Yes | 4c | 17,497$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…e920backed Yes | 3c | 16,932$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…ac7dbacked Yes | 1c | 16,692$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…7801backed Yes | 35c | 16,600$5,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,822.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 2c | 15,991$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…bfb5backed Yes | 3c | 15,913$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…ff9bbacked Yes | 4c | 14,750$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…542ebacked Yes | 1c | 14,505$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…e390backed Yes | 4c | 14,216$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…f12ebacked Yes | 4c | 13,900$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…77e6backed Yes | 2c | 12,219$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ed…ddadbacked Yes | 0c | 12,100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…c024backed Yes | 1c | 12,023$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed Yes | 4c | 11,999$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…d78dbacked Yes | 4c | 11,967$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes | 0c | 11,834$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad6…7dd8backed Yes | 4c | 11,500$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…2fe4backed Yes | 3c | 11,072$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…b0e8backed Yes | 1c | 10,474$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed Yes | 2c | 10,204$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…cd08backed Yes | 3c | 10,171$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,123$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…1f5ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,012$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…d6b4backed Yes | 4c | 9,809$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…28debacked Yes | 1c | 9,738$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…35febacked Yes | 1c | 9,600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…0741backed Yes | 1c | 9,126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bb…8e1ebacked Yes | 13c | 9,008$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…5aa2backed Yes | 1c | 8,948$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 3c | 8,621$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…1d15backed Yes | 2c | 8,453$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes | 3c | 8,255$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.07 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…d84abacked Yes | 12c | 8,198$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…9458backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…147dbacked Yes | 9c | 8,000$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…5b86backed Yes | 4c | 7,911$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b8…94bebacked Yes | 1c | 7,740$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,736$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbccb…6d3abacked Yes | 3c | 7,349$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…80e1backed Yes | 4c | 7,224$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6386…ba03backed Yes | 2c | 7,188$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…8b68backed Yes | 1c | 7,021$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 1c | 6,548$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…aa10backed Yes | 11c | 6,441$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…f00bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,336$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…f7d0backed Yes | 0c | 6,250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b2…df8cbacked Yes | 8c | 6,248$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…d07bbacked Yes | 4c | 6,232$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…4cfabacked Yes | 7c | 6,112$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 2c | 6,035$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a68…310dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,006$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…d6bfbacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…79b6backed Yes | 1c | 5,578$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b2…bc87backed Yes | 2c | 5,536$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes | 12c | 5,409$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,286$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…1970backed Yes | 1c | 5,233$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7768…495cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…3c1fbacked Yes | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 3c | 4,964$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,934$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeea…ca3fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,864$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,819$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…93e6backed Yes | 2c | 4,815$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d7…d117backed Yes | 4c | 4,811$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8f…f082backed Yes | 2c | 4,800$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…b264backed Yes | 2c | 4,769$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb061…3bd9backed Yes | 1c | 4,638$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?this page
- Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.