Movies · resolved market
Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb43e3086ab0f62a6fb4718494172d3a94a63244f1b10746dcb76f40e306cbc0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,014,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $363,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,014,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 0c | 305,000$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9f1bbacked Yes | 1c | 117,108$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 97,700$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.94 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aff…2ac4backed Yes | 0c | 96,358$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…4b52backed Yes | 0c | 61,096$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 51,375$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…cc08backed Yes | 2c | 48,109$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…2aafbacked Yes | 1c | 36,862$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…2eebbacked Yes | 1c | 36,740$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 0c | 36,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…bbcebacked Yes | 1c | 31,684$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.33 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e1…9823backed Yes | 0c | 31,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6425…3ab9backed Yes | 0c | 30,333$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 1c | 28,810$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.56 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…011bbacked Yes | 1c | 28,718$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…97a5backed Yes | 2c | 28,617$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac1…5b41backed Yes | 1c | 28,601$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 0c | 24,321$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 0c | 24,059$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 0c | 23,035$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 0c | 21,619$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 1c | 20,956$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…ede0backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…6d8fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,799$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcae…125fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,171$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 1c | 16,328$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd812…ed32backed Yes | 0c | 16,274$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 16,260$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.34 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…4f3dbacked Yes | 1c | 15,598$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…62debacked Yes | 1c | 15,428$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes | 1c | 14,828$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,398$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…88cdbacked Yes | 0c | 13,914$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 0c | 13,720$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8670…d685backed Yes | 0c | 12,956$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,875$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 1c | 11,964$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…0558backed Yes | 2c | 11,904$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 0c | 11,164$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,173$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…d2b5backed Yes | 1c | 10,001$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a4…67febacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab2…a999backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…6f57backed Yes | 1c | 9,401$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…cd04backed Yes | 1c | 9,356$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c1…bdc4backed Yes | 1c | 8,808$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed Yes | 1c | 7,682$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 0c | 7,571$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…5d6abacked Yes | 0c | 7,490$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…3221backed Yes | 0c | 7,078$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac5…369cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…38a1backed Yes | 0c | 6,516$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…827fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,186$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6a…9841backed Yes | 0c | 6,149$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda62…3e53backed Yes | 1c | 6,105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2081…73b9backed Yes | 0c | 6,006$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef8e…9975backed Yes | 0c | 5,753$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…2038backed Yes | 0c | 5,700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,681$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 0c | 5,066$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…a9c8backed Yes | 0c | 5,063$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,033$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…05fbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e9…f529backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824e…f1b5backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…a4fabacked Yes | 1c | 4,934$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…05f9backed Yes | 0c | 4,809$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb250…52d4backed Yes | 0c | 4,511$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…9162backed Yes | 0c | 4,457$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…3b92backed Yes | 2c | 4,333$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,109$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 1c | 3,900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…6341backed Yes | 1c | 3,821$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26e…5366backed Yes | 1c | 3,360$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Yes | 1c | 3,314$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 0c | 3,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…dd49backed Yes | 1c | 3,175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…c260backed Yes | 1c | 3,158$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1463…7135backed Yes | 0c | 3,021$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,774$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…9c92backed Yes | 1c | 2,653$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a2…2cccbacked Yes | 0c | 2,492$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…8265backed Yes | 1c | 2,450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…4675backed Yes | 1c | 2,318$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…16a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,228$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b1…238cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,154$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb4…a9bdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccc…a831backed Yes | 1c | 2,111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705b…fc2cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,812$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?this page
- Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.