Movies · resolved market
Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c3b1b63bc4dffae0de2033eadbf6315ee30511cb5c3ce02db550dc50157c012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,873,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,245,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,873,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 518 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8077…6f50backed Yes | 7c | 284,229$18,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,917.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 5c | 241,191$10,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,857.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 17c | 113,613$19,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,495.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Yes | 5c | 84,677$3,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,865.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…af98backed Yes | 12c | 68,090$8,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,190.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 58,051$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 1c | 54,582$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.97 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 49,051$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.74 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668a…33f3backed Yes | 16c | 49,027$7,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,687.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…cc08backed Yes | 5c | 47,548$2,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,518.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…8ae0backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…488abacked Yes | 5c | 42,443$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…4b52backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…d78dbacked Yes | 12c | 39,269$4,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,530.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe146…6c1ebacked Yes | 1c | 38,801$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd5…1088backed Yes | 10c | 37,128$3,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,641.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…80e1backed Yes | 11c | 36,037$3,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,964.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…1afdbacked Yes | 6c | 33,839$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 29,432$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.64 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…01e6backed Yes | 3c | 28,909$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 28,419$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.93 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…876dbacked Yes | 28c | 28,128$7,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,839.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01d…be65backed Yes | 16c | 24,440$3,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,843.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 2c | 20,342$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.76 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 4c | 20,144$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…06e4backed Yes | 5c | 20,005$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 3c | 20,000$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87c…46b7backed Yes | 15c | 19,973$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 2c | 17,723$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…a007backed No | 72c | 17,672$12,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…e7a9backed Yes | 7c | 17,191$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…2b6dbacked Yes | 4c | 17,058$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ff…fa28backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 6c | 14,332$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.77 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…ece5backed Yes | 4c | 14,252$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 14,017$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 3c | 13,990$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…64e4backed Yes | 10c | 12,761$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…2807backed Yes | 1c | 10,500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…1aa9backed Yes | 14c | 10,466$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f7…346fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,240$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 2c | 10,100$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…1f5ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…ce64backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4821…d1d2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 7c | 9,739$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.13 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 72c | 9,467$6,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,677.26 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…97a5backed Yes | 28c | 9,331$2,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,653.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed No | 74c | 9,302$6,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,452.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…bbcebacked Yes | 1c | 9,286$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 12c | 9,147$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.82 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…4b24backed Yes | 3c | 9,104$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c28…ce8cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,054$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea7…fdefbacked Yes | 2c | 8,988$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…e920backed Yes | 17c | 8,702$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342f…8e88backed Yes | 16c | 8,578$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…a012backed Yes | 7c | 8,327$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c72…3a89backed Yes | 13c | 8,237$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…df35backed Yes | 13c | 7,821$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…7424backed Yes | 5c | 7,627$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…e78cbacked Yes | 7c | 7,165$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a8…3351backed No | 71c | 7,075$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,075.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 7c | 7,074$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.5 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…cf89backed No | 79c | 6,945$5,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e4…184ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,888$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Yes | 6c | 6,887$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed Yes | 3c | 6,702$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…83b6backed Yes | 12c | 6,699$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…3f5abacked Yes | 2c | 6,644$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a2…374cbacked Yes | 7c | 6,438$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…550cbacked Yes | 15c | 6,398$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…a718backed Yes | 14c | 6,007$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…acc4backed Yes | 6c | 5,679$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…ad5abacked Yes | 28c | 5,662$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 8c | 5,643$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 14c | 5,040$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 16c | 5,025$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…0f3bbacked Yes | 20c | 4,972$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…8cb5backed Yes | 10c | 4,922$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 5c | 4,901$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…ff75backed Yes | 17c | 4,690$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 19c | 4,569$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…2038backed Yes | 7c | 4,537$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed No | 73c | 4,502$3,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.01 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…6c41backed Yes | 15c | 4,422$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6f…37b1backed Yes | 3c | 4,338$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc116…6f0abacked No | 74c | 4,199$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…9b56backed Yes | 16c | 4,195$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…dd49backed Yes | 6c | 4,142$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fc…1881backed Yes | 40c | 4,041$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked Yes | 2c | 3,937$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb4…63e4backed Yes | 2c | 3,923$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…aa10backed Yes | 8c | 3,838$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…a735backed Yes | 13c | 3,784$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes | 35c | 3,734$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 4c | 3,700$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9560…982fbacked No | 78c | 3,666$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…6341backed Yes | 9c | 3,412$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?this page
- Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.