Movies · resolved market
Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2d62fcadf72190f8bcb280be71dae88ea83c9c045b084aedcc99bcc9c1c3838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,308,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,308,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 0c | 419,309$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.86 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…d2b5backed Yes | 0c | 219,768$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 82,937$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.81 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 0c | 51,099$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 50,017$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7659…7c9abacked Yes | 0c | 32,921$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023b…bce8backed Yes | 1c | 29,169$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 1c | 24,578$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.46 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e9…f529backed Yes | 0c | 20,960$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 0c | 17,590$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…989fbacked Yes | 25c | 14,840$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…cf73backed Yes | 1c | 10,341$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a4…67febacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e9…20b7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1456…f0e0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbb…c96dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…93d0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…4698backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,333$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…01e6backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…4f3dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,484$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e1…778fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,747$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 5,193$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…86a2backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7c68backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 72c | 3,500$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,477$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a2…2cccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01d…be65backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aac…aad6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 71c | 225$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?this page
- Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.