Token Launches · resolved market
HumidiFi FDV above $80M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf372706c01799b4f529c0a715765b2ec0699cf9b0917971efcf0dda9ae3a63cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked No | 0c | 42,308$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 3c | 11,020$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.04 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 5c | 6,066$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.52 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed No | 0c | 4,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 8c | 4,013$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.96 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 8c | 3,100$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.04 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 5c | 3,024$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.02 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked No | 2c | 3,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37e…d94cbacked No | 11c | 2,563$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3445…4737backed No | 9c | 2,396$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…a2b3backed No | 9c | 2,328$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…43efbacked No | 12c | 2,080$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…e17fbacked No | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed No | 11c | 1,900$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba94…d855backed No | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.65 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab3…b750backed No | 6c | 1,472$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,369$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 17c | 1,340$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.24 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed No | 6c | 1,055$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…43cebacked No | 10c | 1,020$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ea…7827backed No | 9c | 1,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 4c | 874.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 4c | 864.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…9603backed No | 20c | 709.6$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 5c | 702.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 6c | 600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 7c | 501.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed No | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed No | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…3ee8backed No | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 4c | 453.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…5c8dbacked No | 24c | 425.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed No | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked No | 10c | 335$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed No | 20c | 326.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…9d5dbacked No | 9c | 312.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…7a00backed No | 18c | 289.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 7c | 275$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…8fc4backed No | 9c | 260.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 6c | 253$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…51b5backed No | 5c | 241.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 6c | 222.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…f843backed No | 10c | 210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…6e24backed No | 5c | 208.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…01cabacked No | 20c | 202.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…2ef7backed No | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ed…523bbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed No | 19c | 199.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf9…8c12backed No | 8c | 194.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…8193backed No | 10c | 194$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed No | 6c | 185$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…f54ebacked No | 16c | 179$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 6c | 160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked No | 10c | 152.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…c2c6backed No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…6747backed No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…a1c9backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…0b31backed No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…603bbacked No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…e39ebacked No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…36a8backed No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…8769backed No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b1…d0b2backed No | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- HumidiFi FDV above $80M one day after launch?this page
- HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- HumidiFi FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- HumidiFi FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- HumidiFi FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- HumidiFi FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
- HumidiFi FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.