TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3565…8193

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 53 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT2934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.81
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$146
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$280
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$210
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+41.3%+$82.54
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+108.3%+$108.33
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$183.31
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$284.54
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,086Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,085.6
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+69.3%+$69.27
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$179.05
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$489.24
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+26.3%+$131.28
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,656Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+37.3%+$990.43
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,086Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+42.4%+$883.54
Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$483.79
Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+79.2%+$362.51
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$400
HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Team Falcons win Blast Slam VI? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$682Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$682.35
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3)backed Yakutou Brothers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3)backed Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$66.81
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+42.9%+$21.43
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$450
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Nemesis (BO3)backed Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+29.9%+$14.94
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+58.7%+$117.46
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO5)backed Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+40.1%+$120.37
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+53.9%+$151.9
All 10 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+285.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$162.09
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+671.6%+$920.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.