Token Launches · resolved market
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x857a8ebb2ec4897e3aff5ce216d39e852c4296c53f7ed9043ef27601cdc3f9e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed No | 36c | 3,372$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…6979backed Yes | 66c | 2,118$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.48 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…7924backed Yes | 5c | 1,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea0…bf6dbacked No | 35c | 1,249$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.81 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c1…cefebacked No | 32c | 1,239$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 66c | 1,150$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.72 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 25c | 1,041$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed No | 35c | 1,017$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,014$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…bb11backed No | 26c | 1,006$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cde…41d0backed No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…3c6ebacked Yes | 77c | 945.23$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 867.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…84e5backed No | 39c | 773.98$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.87 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +206.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc79b…b9eebacked Yes | 75c | 739.99$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f5febacked Yes | 13c | 662.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe079…e93fbacked Yes | 75c | 634.27$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…4549backed No | 28c | 600.06$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 38c | 581.08$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.28 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 78c | 513$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 22c | 486$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 22c | 454.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.66 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…8193backed No | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…b91cbacked Yes | 25c | 396.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc59a…5bbfbacked Yes | 58c | 358.85$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 23c | 355$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 78c | 346$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 22c | 335$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed No | 22c | 333$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Yes | 77c | 330$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 25c | 323.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.32 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 316.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes | 67c | 302.81$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | +25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 78c | 293$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 23c | 283$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed No | 22c | 283$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d53…86d5backed No | 32c | 274.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 22c | 263$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6658…654cbacked No | 39c | 259.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 23c | 257$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 66c | 256.48$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.42 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed No | 22c | 255$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 33c | 252.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.84 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ecf7backed Yes | 62c | 251.75$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.09 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 77c | 250$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 23c | 249$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 78c | 241$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked Yes | 51c | 238.52$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 22c | 231$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 77c | 231$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 78c | 227$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 77c | 225$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…e0dfbacked Yes | 24c | 208.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 78c | 208$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…fbe0backed No | 23c | 204$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 23c | 202$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 77c | 191$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed No | 22c | 180$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0b…8996backed No | 39c | 175$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 23c | 165$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 28c | 146$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd186…4db7backed Yes | 22c | 141.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…55b0backed No | 19c | 140.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 23c | 140$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 8c | 139.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 76c | 138.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 21c | 132.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 78c | 129$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 77c | 128$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 77c | 126$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 77c | 126$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 39c | 122.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…7d55backed No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed No | 23c | 115$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked No | 22c | 113$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 78c | 113$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 11c | 112.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…0a39backed No | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3770…bb07backed No | 25c | 105.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed Yes | 77c | 103$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…adc4backed Yes | 77c | 100.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 48c | 100.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6aecbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +8.0wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…b4f0backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…e3f2backed No | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…9dafbacked No | 29c | 97.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 77c | 96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd409…1e3fbacked Yes | 68c | 94.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…6b27backed Yes | 64c | 93.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 23c | 93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 78c | 93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 77c | 88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Octra FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Octra FDV above $30M one day after launch?No won
- Octra FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.