Token Launches · resolved market
Octra FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf94f132621f2bc4fbcd48858bacb45f4edf63a4e7c8bab7c3a211bbad7bd72c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed Yes | 17c | 2,771$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe079…e93fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,647$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed No | 76c | 1,383$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.03 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,198$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 72c | 976.24$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.37 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…f6f5backed No | 71c | 915.49$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…6979backed Yes | 31c | 846.61$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked Yes | 16c | 837.05$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.93 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 599.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed Yes | 20c | 500.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…0f1bbacked Yes | 31c | 476.34$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…b4f0backed No | 77c | 450.67$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e7…01d3backed Yes | 25c | 396$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…d24bbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 18c | 298$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…deb1backed Yes | 34c | 297.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 69c | 270.33$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…4549backed No | 69c | 265.92$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…c431backed Yes | 25c | 263.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 73c | 239.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…2e87backed Yes | 21c | 232.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 23c | 224.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 17c | 223.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 68c | 212.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 18c | 211$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 19c | 208$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…7ab7backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…846bbacked No | 69c | 199.07$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 16c | 199$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…3da8backed Yes | 28c | 179.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f5febacked No | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 11c | 153.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes | 18c | 142$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 19c | 141$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6f…7d62backed No | 78c | 134.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 80c | 132.25$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 120.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…adc4backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…55b0backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 96.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 78c | 90.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 70c | 87.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 83.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 70c | 83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 80.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 13c | 79.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…99a1backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…bb98backed No | 73c | 66.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3770…bb07backed No | 73c | 57.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…c86fbacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6aecbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 66c | 48.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8910…cad5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6386…17dfbacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Octra FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Octra FDV above $30M one day after launch?No won
- Octra FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.