TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,858
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,106

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,858 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0df0…6979backed Yes55c3,688$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.753444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No56c2,227$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.861457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed No61c1,913$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.049046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No43c1,248$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.369645.8%44 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed No52c965.14$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.141040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe079…e93fbacked Yes47c950.75$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.1540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0baf…409cbacked Yes21c874.73$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.69175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-89.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef80…bb11backed No40c757.19$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.411040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked No42c709.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.553036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa9…4baabacked No45c674.99$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.846240.3%25 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14dc…de4cbacked No50c569.52$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.45166.3%1 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.25per pick32cpaid-87.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed No49c546.46$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.1713134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af5…89babacked No67c527.47$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.185240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No59c513.41$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.512840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-80.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb200…691dbacked Yes23c477.39$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.29540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+80.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c73…44f4backed Yes45c450$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.51030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e62…4549backed No56c433.9$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+70.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No45c392.43$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.5415539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0107…bb52backed Yes51c390.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93cd…7f4abacked Yes55c325.79$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.77110%0 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1682352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No57c298.99$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3410756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes43c271.38$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc973…dbc7backed No39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.41922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed No61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.55149%25 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85cb…6603backed No61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73f2…b9aabacked Yes44c228$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.32771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f63…55b0backed No56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No78c192.74$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.414548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad41…a108backed No59c189.03$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.51070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+93.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb2e…35bfbacked No57c180$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.44055%22 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c177.57$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.137663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7af7…dee2backed No57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0938…9e26backed No65c153.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…deb1backed Yes22c153.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-59.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5776…b9c4backed Yes30c145$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc05f…9b56backed No70c143.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.439254.3%50 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdb…2ddbbacked No71c141.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-52.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x151d…4497backed No59c140$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.45347.2%25 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae3c…98b7backed No75c133.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.391090%9 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick66cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29b4…9dafbacked No69c130$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4553…4783backed Yes58c129.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No63c119.52$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5211942%50 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4816740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x577b…ad6abacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd36…6aecbacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ae7…9603backed No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626656.1%37 W · 29 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+39.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603250%16 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467919%15 W · 64 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes44c99.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd186…4db7backed Yes12c98.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes15c97.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.023495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6658…654cbacked No62c93.58$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.811450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e2…c86fbacked No54c92.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.23060%18 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6a1…2393backed Yes60c91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes16c88.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.491315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516c…981ebacked No62c80.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x132d…67ccbacked Yes58c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-70.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes52c75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3915637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfb3…9dc1backed No55c72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c4c…4885backed Yes56c71.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.833329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2796…b4f0backed No64c64.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+58.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ad…596bbacked No78c64.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.17475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5616…64cdbacked Yes31c63.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bc…1f3abacked Yes52c59.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes30c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.58643%37 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fb…5dd9backed No78c51.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.581338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+59.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe73e…0a39backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+40.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3d6d…5144backed No59c46.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.152152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa32b…e70ebacked Yes64c45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick67cpaid-56.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No60c44.19$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5813054.6%71 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x143c…a48dbacked Yes59c42.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed No33c38.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.841361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+39.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe0f…db07backed No60c35.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.17862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcadc…d802backed Yes43c35.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33140%0 W · 14 L-6.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xe1cc…f7d4backed No55c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.753638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd76…9fe3backed Yes59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick68cpaid-70.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x43a4…0c73backed No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.252839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9521240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85af…e1f3backed No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.64100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+52.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39df…fc7bbacked Yes52c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fa…177bbacked No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.643164.5%20 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c12…1e71backed No63c23.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.731283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+23.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f22…aaecbacked No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102850%14 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.