TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbe1d…3c6e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$729Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$728.99
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+187.2%+$180.03
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$129.52
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$173.86
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+37%+$73.97
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+47.2%+$1,179.75
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$514.69
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+75.1%+$228.05
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+228.7%+$332.13
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+51.4%+$132.81
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,367Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+34.6%+$1,165.94
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$271.25
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
WLFI >$13B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,811Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+56.5%+$1,024.21
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.39
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.11
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+91.2%+$42.04
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$14.94
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$30.94
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$80.31
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$22.3
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$9.19
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$36.52
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
All 14 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+94%+$28.71
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+53.8%+$53.85
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$78.21
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$350
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+809.1%+$161.82
Will Fulham win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-65.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$50
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+37%+$73.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Mls — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$58.73
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.44
Warriors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sevilla win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lazio win on 2025-10-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$4,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$4,900
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$248.72
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.